How Andy Burnham’s road to 10 Downing Street is littered with obstacles - Jayne Dowle

Makerfield is in Wigan, once at the heart of the Lancashire coalfield. Less than a fortnight ago, Nigel Farage’s right-wing party took all but one of 24 out of the 25 local council seats up for grabs in Wigan.

Eight wards in Makerfield voted. Add the results together and Reform won 50.4 per cent of the vote, Labour only 22.7 per cent. Although holding on to control, Labour lost 22 councillors along the way.

All of this in an area of the North of England that has previously been as red as it comes. Makerfield has been Labour for more than 40 years, since the seat was formed in 1983.

This shift to turquoise is not the ideal backdrop for a Burnham coronation. Plus, Labour’s Makerfield majority at the 2024 general election was hardly resounding, at just 5,399. The party’s Josh Simons, who is vacating his seat for Burnham to contest, secured 18,202 votes while Reform UK finished second with 12,803.

It’s predicted that Burnham would need a swing of more than 12 per cent from Reform UK to win the seat – so there’s some serious persuading on the agenda.

“I truly do not take a single vote for granted and will work hard to regain the trust of people in the Makerfield constituency, many of whom have long supported our party but lost faith in recent times,” Burnham says.

“We will change Labour for the better and make it a party you can believe in again.”

However, the counter argument goes that local people in a town that might characterise the popular political notion of ‘left-behind’ – few Westminster insiders would have heard of Makerfield until last week – don’t so much like being used as a stepping stone for Burnham to make his way from Wigan Pier to Downing Street.

No doubt the Reform UK strategists will already be working on this one. The selection of their own candidate will be absolutely crucial. I’d put money on it being someone hyper-local. Much will be made of what they could do for their constituents. Much will also be made of Burnham’s burning ambition to be prime minister rather than a lowly backbencher dealing with benefits queries or new houses being built.

If we’re painting the darkest picture possible, there’s yet another thing. A big thing. To stand as a parliamentary candidate, it is highly likely that Burnham must vacate the metro mayor’s job.

This would trigger another election. The possibility of Reform UK winning this and taking over leadership of the whole of Greater Manchester is certainly not beyond the realms of Labour’s worst imaginings. Traditional working class towns including Rochdale, Bury, Tameside, Bolton all fell under the spell of Reform UK at the local elections.

That said, Greater Manchester is home to around three million people, as diverse as any UK city can be, but as in Makerfield, Reform UK is gearing up with big guns.

Also, buoyed by recent parliamentary success in Gorton and Denton, which saw their candidate Hannah Spencer returned to parliament, the Greens will be out in force, potentially splitting what would have been solid Labour votes.

The possibility of a Green Manchester mayor is remote, but if, thanks to the current volatility of voting behaviour, Farage’s party was to succeed, taking Makerfield and also Greater Manchester, Burnham’s gamble would backfire not once, but twice.

For now, Farage has vowed to “throw absolutely everything” at the Makerfield contest. It is understood that the by-election could take place as early as June 18 or June 25, so only a month or so to go. Residents should expect the appearance of Farage and his acolytes in a working men’s club near them any time soon.

Burnham, whose previous constituency was the neighbouring seat of Leigh, has twice run for Labour leader and failed. This fresh fight will be his biggest test yet. He not only has to win in Makerfield, he then has to go to Westminster and win any contest to become Labour leader before he can even think about proceeding to Downing Street. The playing field for this step is by no means level, with Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and others not entirely ruled out of the running.

However, the febrile political atmosphere certainly presents a clear opportunity for Burnham to prove his mettle as the anointed one.