How NIMBYs could stop Labour’s Net Zero plan dead in its tracks - Chris Hocknell

These ‘Not in My Back Yarders’ can wield a lot of power. In this instance, they could stop Labour’s Net Zero plan dead in its tracks.

Let’s start with onshore wind. To reach a Net Zero grid by 2030, Labour would need around 35 gigawatts of Onshore wind capacity. We have approximately 15 gigawatts today. When the fastest build-out in the last 10 years has been around 1.5 Gigawatts per annum, 20 Gigawatts of onshore wind in six years seems fanciful.

Onshore wind development dropped sharply since 2016 when David Cameron pushed through regulations that meant wind developers had to prove ‘unanimous’ local support.

Starmer has overruled this de facto ban. However this may not be enough; local opposition and planning issues will still present challenges, namely on environmental wildlife protection and aesthetic amenity grounds. Labour are hoping they can entice local communities by financially rewarding them via a Community Benefits Protocol, time will tell if this is enough of a sweetener. Yet time is what we don’t have; for 2030 to be possible, this must all start now. To under-estimate the NIMBY impulse in the UK could be a costly mistake.

Let’s move onto the grid. A Net Zero grid by 2030 means running on 90 per cent renewable energy. Under Labour’s manifesto, they are claiming that they will invest some £8.3bn directly into grid updates. £8.3bn is a big number. However, it’s not as large as £58bn, which is the figure that ESO (the Electricity System Operator) suggests will be needed to get the grid ready for Net Zero.

To run an economy almost entirely off electricity, the UK needs new pylons everywhere. Both the National Grid and Ofgem have identified an initial 26 onshore electricity projects that would be needed in order to reach the country’s 2050 target.

There is a strong history of opposition to these projects; the Bealy to Denny operation line, cutting through the Scottish Highlands took some 10 years to build. Under current legislation, it takes only a small number of disgruntled and well organised NIMBYs to frustrate and derail new infrastructure.

Finally, we arrive at nuclear power. Despite the promise of almost limitless power, nuclear energy is still constrained by bad PR. For many, nuclear doesn’t mean cheap energy, it means bombs and three-eyed fish.

Previous surveys show that up to 62 per cent of Brits would not support living near a nuclear power station. Simply building new nuclear power stations, beyond the sheer time and cost, will not come without its NIMBY complications.

This is a more serious issue than onshore wind. The fantasies of a wind and solar-only grid will eventually yield to the reality that a wind and solar-based grid will need a base load. If that doesn’t come from abated fossil fuels, it’ll have to come from nuclear instead.

Once the practicalities of Labour’s flashy 2030 manifesto promises are borne out, Starmer will have no choice but to quietly abandon them.

Chris Hocknell is the CEO of sustainability consultancy Eight Versa.