How Russian invasion of Ukraine can be averted – Patrick Mercer

He was zooming me from the Crimea and quoting the oft-used phrase of a French general – ‘it’s magnificent but it’s not war’ – after the Light Brigade was ruined at Balaklava in 1854.

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But he was applying this to the antics of HMS Defender which, allegedly, sailed too close to Sebastopol, had been shot at by a couple of skiffs and then scuttled off into the Black Sea. I’m glad it amused him, because it left me wondering what on earth Britain hoped to achieve.

Well, here we are again on the brink of war. Once more, Russia is ‘about to invade’ Ukraine and the world is going to be plunged into a nuclear-tipped confrontation.

Really? Just like we were in 2014? Just like we were last spring? It set me wondering: should Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, or Boris Johnson, be misguided enough to ask me for advice, what would I say?

Before I give full rein to my 
cynicism, though, let’s just look at the facts.

A German admiral has just been fired because he said publicly that the Crimea would never be returned to Ukraine and Mr Putin deserves some respect.

I happen to agree, but let’s leave the events of 2014 alone and concentrate on last spring.

Memories are short, but only nine months ago it was trumpeted by the West that Russia intended to mount an amphibious operation to seize Ukrainian soil around Odessa and grab water supplies vital for the Crimea.

Certainly, over 150,000 troops were deployed and armour was said to be ready for blitzkreig which could even thrust towards Kiev.

The trouble was the troops massed, manoeuvred and then goose-stepped back to barracks whilst much of the hardware proved to be inflatable decoys!

How the Kremlin chuckled as pictures of these (very lifelike) bath toys were splashed across the internet.

The capable, experienced and highly respected Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, apparently refused to believe that the West could be conned so easily and was then dumbfounded by Britain’s deploying Defender so provocatively just as the dust was settling.

Today another horde of Putin’s men are circling like vultures.

From Belarus to the north, via Donbas in the east to Simferopol in the south, Ukraine now has Russian armed forces on three sides.

There’s a few more than there were last spring – possibly 160,000 – and there are warships once again manoeuvring off Ireland and in the Baltic. Looks like war.

Some of the claims being bandied about seem to support this, but let’s just look at them more closely.

First, the suggestion that President Biden will spearhead NATO and 
ensure that any Russian incursions 
are extremely costly. Would that be 
the same President that acted with such noble resolve in Afghanistan last year?

And NATO? Well, Germany – the most potent partner – has already withdrawn rather than risk having to put her money where her energy supply is.

Next, the Foreign Office has revealed evidence of a plot to install a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine via a rare reference to British covert intelligence-gathering.

Whilst light on detail, the report suggested that a former Ukrainian MP had been tipped to lead the new puppet regime.

Unfortunately, Yevhen Murayev laughed at the prospect, saying that he’d been banned from Russia, whilst Ukrainian government sources described the reports as ‘ridiculous’.

Then comes the the relentless BBC coverage of Ukraine on a war footing. Yet, the vox pops from Kiev suggest a bustling, prosperous, relaxed capital although the civilians apparently training to form a resistance once Ivan arrives look quite impressive – until it’s remembered what happened the last time.

In 2014 the Russian Navy confronted the Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet which, far from fighting to the last stoker and the last bullet, defected wholesale! And what about the Ukrainian maquis operating behind the lines in Donbas and occupied Crimea? I’ve heard nothing.

Similarly, no sensible general advertises what is going to happen before it actually does. Certainly, the West was caught flat-footed when Russia went into Crimea eight years ago.

So, what would my advice be?

First, don’t pull the bear’s tail with another stunt involving aircraft or warships near Russia unless you want blood to flow.

Moscow’s mindset is woke-free and hardwired to never letting the West ever again threaten her with anything even remotely like the cauldrons of Stalingrad or Kursk.

Second, Messrs Wallace and Johnson (I warned you about the cynicism) simply keep doing what you’re doing.

Send weapons and a clutch of instructors, but not combat forces – they might get hurt.

Rattle your lead sabre and bash your plastic drum as hard as you can in the certain knowledge that your own policies have castrated our troops.

Even if you wanted to send a potent task force that would deter aggression, you’ve stripped the armouries, airfields and dockyards bare.

Then you must back Uncle Sam to the hilt, cross your fingers and hope that the world’s policeman performs better than he did a few weeks ago in Kabul.

Lastly, make as much noise about this as possible, book as many media interviews as you can and try to look Churchillian. If this works the voters might – just might – be distracted from the horrors at home and you’ll both keep your jobs.

* Patrick Mercer is an ex-soldier and former Conservative MP for Newark.

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