How the landscape has changed in Ukraine following Donald Trump’s victory - Patrick Mercer

Now he has a mandate like few others and he’s already using it, despite the fact that he doesn’t formally sit in the Whitehouse until mid January. Within hours of winning, Mr Trump began to drop heavy hints about a number of policy issues, the most complete of which concerned Ukraine.

Having already said that he’d stop the bloodshed ‘within 24 hours’, there was no surprise when the bones of his blueprint made it clear that Ukraine would be forced to cede territory to the Russians. This instantly scuppered Mr Zelensky’s long held tenet that he would only talk to the Kremlin once a complete withdrawal from Ukrainian territory was underway.

Indeed, Bryan Lanza, a former Whitehouse advisor, who is close to the president-elect, said that Ukraine’s president would have to produce a ‘realistic vision for peace’. He added ‘Crimea’s gone,’ sketching a completely new plan - a plan that’s suddenly pulled the carpet from under Kiev.

Then further leaks underlined that Russia should be allowed to hold all the ground she’s already taken. Obviously, that’s a clear incentive for Russia to push as hard as she can over the next few weeks, especially as the Trump plan envisages the Ukrainians withdrawing westward to create an 800 mile buffer zone. This area would be overseen by NATO troops - but not Americans - and probably commanded by the British. To balance that, the plan states that Kiev would join NATO, but only after 20 years and then her accession would be guaranteed.

That’s the gist of it: Russia gets to hold the ground she’s captured and already declared to be part of the Motherland, including the mineral-rich areas to the east of the Dneiper, the coalfields, industrial hubs, ports, railways and power stations - rather more than 20 per cent of Ukraine. In turn, Europe and Britain will be forced to pony-up the troops and assets needed to enforce this solution whilst the USA would be able to concentrate on threats from China and the Middle East.

At the stroke, Trump’s America would have lost a liability. Meanwhile, the British and Europeans would be forced to spend more on their own security whilst supervising a hot border and placating a seething, dismembered Ukraine whose people would be left looking at their graveyards and wondering what the last three years have really been about.

Brilliant…no it’s not.

Despite an alleged, early ‘phone call to Mr Putin from Mr Trump, Russia has yet to be consulted, but that hasn’t stopped the Kremlin responding to the leaks in uncompromising terms. The Russians have said that they will stick to their clearly stated plans of seizing parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts which lie to the west of the River Dneiper whilst never accepting NATO troops (with or without the Americans) on their doorstep.

Also, Moscow underlined that they have the battlefield initiative behind them. Vital towns and cities are falling under their control every day, Kiev’s forces are bleeding dry of manpower and visibly tottering whilst the Kremlin asks what Mr Trump’s going to do to stop their advances without sparking a full blown war in the first days of his presidency: they have a point.

Now, obviously, Mr Trump’s flying a kite, but there are a couple of very sinister twists which need to be thought about. First, any hint of Bankova Street (Kiev’s Westminster) breaking their own laws and parleying with the enemy will provoke a furious reaction from extremists such as the Azov Regiment, Right Sektor and others who would probably oust Mr Zelensky, refuse any compromise and just fight to the death. The only people who could draw the teeth of such a revolt would be NATO: a bloody putsch involving Allied deaths is exactly what President Trump does not want.

Then there’s Messrs Starmer and Macron’s antics at a discreet meeting they had last Monday. Remember, not so long ago France was openly preparing Foreign Legionnaires to be the first NATO troops in Ukraine.

Simultaneously, Mr Starmer gave his unilateral permission for Kiev to fire Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia. Now, both schemes were squashed by the Whitehouse once Russia made it clear that she would respond with her missiles, not aimed at French or Brits in Ukraine, but probably at the two country’s supply depots in Germany or Poland. In short, a world war would be sparked.

Despite all this, whilst turning a blind eye to the fact that Britain has run out of missiles, our Defence Secretary has said the UK’s forces are incapable of fighting a war, and the political chaos in France, a number of sources have claimed that the two premiers are busily plotting.

Apparently, they intend to twist Joe Biden’s faltering arm and allow whatever ordnance is left to be lofted towards Moscow. In the twilight of his power and before Donald Trump can intervene, it’s suggested that Biden is to be cast as a latter day Dr Strangelove!

Perhaps the Starmer/Macron plot is just the workings of some addled journalist’s mind; perhaps there is no phalanx of extremists in Kiev…perhaps. What is certain, though, is that almost anything can happen in the next few weeks and that the spectre of an all-out war looks ever closer.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.