Is Dan Jarvis being set up to fail as Defence Secretary or has he realised the leverage at his disposal? - Patrick Mercer

Now, when that discussion happened peace looked permanent; now it doesn’t and it is the imminent threat of war that caused the Defence Secretary, Yorkshireman John Healey, the Armed Forces’ Minister, Al Carns and a parliamentary private secretary all to resign within hours of each other.

Their departure hinged on the Government’s failure to honour its promises to find more money to rebuild our threadbare, faltering forces. So it was that Mr Healey’s resignation letter contained a killer punch aimed jointly at the PM and Chancellor. Mr Healey pummelled Sir Keir accusing him of being “unable” and Rachael Reeves of being “unwilling” to fund Britain’s defence.

Many commentators called the resignations ‘principled’ pointing especially to John Healey’s record of party loyalty and apparent lack of ambition for the top job. Well, perhaps, but might there be something rather more calculated about the whole affair?

First, look at the long term. Few would bet on Labour’s chances of surviving the next general election, even under new management. Next, Sir Keir made it quite clear in a statement at the G7 conference just five days ago that there would be no more money for defence.

Assuming that this government’s remaining time in power will be dominated by threats from many enemies, doesn’t our safety depend upon experienced, competent ministers who know which buttons to press and which levers to pull?

Or does quitting now give these parliamentarians a chance to distance themselves from Team Starmer whilst placing themselves nicely for preference by his successor? I wonder if quiet discussions have already happened?

Or is there another angle? The defence team’s resignations were carefully staggered over several hours, giving the PM multiple crises rather than one. Their onslaught torpedoed Sir Keir’s scheme to launch the long awaited Defence Investment Plan at the G7 summit in France using it to reset his image as a hard nosed leader of the new, European security caucus. And don’t forget that all this was pitched against the backdrop of the crucial Makerfield by-election, the results of which will be known by the time this article goes to print.

Now, whilst others have suggested that Mr Healey might make a good replacement for Sir Keir, he’s never been known to voice that ambition himself. But that’s not the case with Al Carns. Some weeks ago I wrote that the honourable member for Selly Oak’s war record and obvious self discipline would be an excellent basis for a future prime minister and he seems to agree with me.

Since his resignation Carns has been busy and when questioned about any hope to be our premier, he’s never denied it. Meanwhile, an incessant stream of self promoting tweets and videos point to a man who’s hungry for advancement.

There’s an important detail about this gentleman’s conduct in Parliament that doesn’t ring true, though. Last Tuesday, sitting next to each other in the Commons, Messrs Healey and Carns delivered another, carefully orchestrated salvo in the shape of personal statements to explain their resignations.

Al Carns outlined the several reasons for his departure including the vexed Northern Ireland Troubles Bill, saying: “I could no longer ignore the continued failure to address the treatment of our veterans of Northern Ireland. A country owes a duty to those it sent into harm’s way…”

In April, though, when the Bill was last voted upon in the Commons, Carns was ‘absent on ministerial business’. At that stage he was still a loyal Starmerite and would have been quite clear that, as a minister, he had to support the government’s line; if he intended to go against his boss he would have had to resign.

Yet, if we’re to believe what he said a few days ago, Carns felt passionately that the Bill was failing veterans - but not so passionately that he would endanger his own career by voting against it.

Almost simultaneously, as Britain’s defences were being mocked around the world, Whitehall indulged in a bit of theatre to prove the critics wrong. Since March more than 200 ships that were thought to belong to Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ have navigated The Channel unchallenged, despite our PM’s tough words to the contrary.

But, just as the dust kicked up by the Defence Duo was starting to settle, the good ship Smyrtos - sailing under a Cameroon flag - was boarded by commandos and detained. Undoubtedly the Royal Marines did a good job, but the video released by the MoD was toe curling; you could almost hear “Lights, camera, music… action” being yelled by the director.

Meanwhile, amidst all this din and thunder another Yorkshire MP has been appointed to be the new Defence Secretary. As an army officer Dan Jarvis saw much active service and I know him to be thoughtful and very likeable, yet many would regard a complete overhaul of our Forces - the essence of his new job - to be ‘mission impossible’.

Is he being set up to fail or has Dan Jarvis analysed the Healey/Carns crisis and realised just how much leverage it gives him?

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army Colonel.