It felt like a cold summer, so why should we be worrying about rising temperatures? - Asif Husain-Naviatti

Globally, however, the situation is more extreme. Monitoring stations throughout the world have recorded unprecedented heat this summer, breaking record upon record. The global average surface temperature between June 2024–August 2024 was the hottest in 175 years of record-keeping, and according to the National Centers for Environmental Information, 1.24°C above the global 20th-century average. August 2024 tied as the joint hottest August ever on record, and 12 of the previous 13 months have been the warmest month for month. The global average temperature has exceeded 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels for over a year since June 2023, temporarily breaching the critical 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement in 2015 to avert the worst consequences of climate change.

It is important to remember that both the record-breaking statistics and the Paris targets are based on averages. August was only the 25th warmest on record in the UK and just 0.3°C above a historical average since 1874. Far east Russia, Argentina and parts of central Africa were cooler than average. But in Austria, temperatures were 3°C hotter, rising an additional 0.3°C in the mountainous regions. Australia and the Antarctic experienced temperatures exceeding 4°C above average, and the Norwegian Arctic saw an astonishing 10°C increase. Warmer air increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall, as we are witnessing across Europe right now, despite historic droughts in other parts of the world such as Brazil.

While it has been widely reported that temperatures in parts of India may breach the limit of human living tolerance by 2035, shifting temperature expectations have serious consequences for agriculture too. Extreme heat, unexpected cold, unseasonal rains, droughts and other effects of changing weather disrupt planting and harvesting, leading to reduced crop yields affecting many local economies.

This is compounded by the spread of new invasive pests as weather patterns change.

Meanwhile the simultaneous decline of beneficial insects essential for natural processes like pollination is threatening fruit production in wealthy and middle-income countries, including the UK. According to recent estimates from the Economist Intelligence Unit, unusually wet weather alone could lead to a 19 per cent decrease in UK harvests of wheat, barley, oats, and oilseed rape this year compared to 2023, potentially resulting in nearly a billion pounds in lost revenue.

Globally, these agricultural disruptions threaten food security in a world already strained by a population of over 8 billion people and growing. A fourth consecutive year of wholesale flooding in South Sudan, for example, submerged an area equivalent to more than 40 New York Cities, plunging millions into malnutrition, including some 1.5 million children.

Climate extremes drove 56.8 million more people in 12 countries into acute food insecurity in 2022, according to the World Food Programme. Far from reaching the global goal of ending food insecurity by 2030, climate change could significantly exacerbate hunger on a scale that challenges the limits of our global humanitarian capacity.

While this illustrates once again that the poor are disproportionately affected by climate change, we are all affected in an interconnected world. For instance, coffee bean trading prices have reached an all-time high due to crop shortages among major coffee producers caused by erratic weather phenomena, including unseasonal frosts in Brazil and typhoons in Vietnam. The price of our morning coffee has surged this year in proportion.

Sugar, olive oil, potatoes and various other staples are among the many similar casualties to extreme weather. Though high energy prices and supply chain disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine are often cited as major factors driving up the cost of living, it is crucial to recognise the significant impact of climate change on the dramatic 30.6 per cent rise in UK food prices from May 2023 to May 2024. Climate change's role in disrupting global agricultural production has played a substantial part in this increase and should not be overlooked.

The fact that some of these issues are reflected in children's literature underscores growing public awareness, even if missing the statistical details. ‘Panda Looking Everywhere’, a picture book by 11-year-old York schoolgirl Suri Husain-Naviatti, captures a food constrained dynamic, albeit innocently and unconsciously, through her young and fanciful eyes. ‘Panda Looking Everywhere’ is published by Bumblebee Books.

Asif Husain-Naviatti, originally from Rotherham, has over 25 years of experience at the UN, World Bank and other international organisations on sustainable development.