It’s not Sir Keir Starmer who is looking the most vulnerable heading into the local elections - David Behrens
As we approach the local elections, which party leader is looking most vulnerable? It’s not who you think. It would take a more adventurous gambler than me to risk money on Sir Keir Starmer leading Labour to the next ‘proper’ poll in 2029 – but as for losing his job this summer as his many critics predict: it’s not going to happen.
Labour’s problem, and also Starmer’s salvation, is the absence of any succession plan. Not one of the runners and riders commands a broader church within the party than he, and the one person who does – Andy Burnham – has been rendered unavailable by Keir himself.
And though he has fumbled the ball more often than Bruce Grobbelaar, the PM retains a significant stronghold, with a majority only slightly smaller than Tony Blair’s in 1997. Who else can say that?
Not Kemi Badenoch, for sure. On her watch the Conservative Party has been a sleeping giant, a rest home for war-weary politicians biding their time until the next battle. She has done them a service by seeing off the worst of the insurrectionists but a bad result next Thursday will signal the end of nap time. Suddenly the wolves will encircle her.
Her failure to articulate the national mood has opened the doors to extremists on both sides who for the first time have entered the mainstream of political debate. These are not new and original voices but shape-shifting provocateurs and troublemakers. That is a shameful legacy for a Tory leader.
But does the wind in the sails of far-left and far-right parties amount to anything more than hot air?
In the case of the Greens, currently the darlings of Westminster media pundits hypnotised by the apparent charisma of leader Zack Polanski, the rhetoric barely stands scrutiny.
As currently constituted it is not the UK branch of Friends of the Earth but a militant project riven with controversies over open borders and transgender rights. That’s fine for picking up protest votes in the parliamentary midterm but with policies that are actively objectionable to so many voters they can never command a national majority.
The other disruptor, coming at it from the opposite direction, is more measurable. Reform UK took control of 12 councils last May and that makes this week’s poll its first real report card.
The statistics tell their own story. More than 10 per cent of its councillors have resigned, defected or been got rid of. That’s not surprising because the selection process was nonexistent. If you could buy beer from an off-licence you were qualified to stand on Reform’s ticket.
Actually, off-licences are more choosy. George Finch, for instance, still has to show his ID card before he can buy a four-pack of Red Bull, but by Reform standards he’s a political grandee. He was 18 when they made him number two at Warwickshire Council last spring and now he’s leader, with assets of £1.5bn and a budget of around £500m in his control. A year ago he was still drawing pocket money.
Luke Campbell is older but no wiser. A former champion boxer, he unexpectedly became mayor of East Yorkshire last May and his only apparent accomplishment has been to set up a £1m fund for community projects which then awarded cash to his son’s football team.
He is secure in office until 2029 but from his window overlooking Hull Marina he will see traditionally Labour voters on their way to choose who they want on their city council. Will they throw protest votes at Reform once more or realise they’ve been sold a pup?
Campbell is an interesting counterpart to Andy Burnham. As ‘metro mayors’ at opposite ends of the spectrum they demonstrate how much or how little benefit communities can expect from having a local leader. Manchester has a brand new bus system; Hull has a football strip for the mayor’s son. He plays for a non-league side, by the way. So does his dad, metaphorically speaking.
And what to make of the Reform administration in Doncaster, one of whose councillors actually accused parents of “training” their children to exhibit special education needs that would earn them benefits?
Nigel Farage said last week he wanted a private sector solution to reopening Doncaster’s mothballed airport but this Tuesday his deputy Richard Tice said the opposite.
Of course he did. Reform will say whatever is popular on Monday and whatever is popular on Friday, even if they are completely contradictory. Farage is aping his role model Donald Trump and he’s failed to notice that the rest of us are wise to it.
On Friday the results will be in, but in a sense they already are – because in a disruptive midterm there are seldom winners; only losers.