John Healey is going to have to undo the damage done by Rachel Reeves - Andrew Vine

Will we all feel better off when the Chancellor sits down after delivering his budget tomorrow? Confident that the economy is turning a corner and better times lie ahead?

Probably not, is the answer to both questions. But we should live in hope that John Healey, the Yorkshire MP who is one of the government’s most impressive and intelligent figures, has something up his sleeve to get the country moving in the right direction towards economic growth and more stable public finances.

It won’t be lost on Mr Healey that an overwhelming weight of opinion within the business and farming communities which matter so much to the county he represents as an MP urges him to do something very embarrassing for a Labour Chancellor.

That is to reverse virtually everything his predecessor introduced, which would amount to an admission that the measures from Rachel Reeves did more harm than good. Despite massively increasing taxation by £75bn in her two budgets, the country’s balance sheet looked no healthier when she left office.

Chancellor John Healey speaking during the Labour Party Conference. PIC: Annabel Lee-Ellis/PA Wireplaceholder image
Chancellor John Healey speaking during the Labour Party Conference. PIC: Annabel Lee-Ellis/PA Wire

We’ll find out tomorrow if Mr Healey even hints at that being the case, but whether he does so or not, the voices from our region demanding fundamental change from the government must be heard.

They have been consistent in their criticism since this government’s first budget two years ago. More importantly, they have been right.

Hiking national insurance (NI) for employers has deterred them from investing or creating new jobs, especially for the young. Taxing family farms into bankruptcy has caused incalculable harm to agriculture. Burdening businesses with increased rates has accelerated the decline of our high streets into wastelands of shuttered shops.

For business and farming, there has been precious little to cheer about in the government’s first two years. After a change of both Prime Minister and tone from gloom to optimism, it falls to Mr Healey to try to inject some sense of economic purpose.

It would take extraordinary political courage for the Chancellor to dismantle the policies of his predecessor, not least because that would give the impression the government is having to start from scratch.

But an honest admission that mistakes were made will go down better with the public than sticking to measures that have failed on two fronts, neither making the country better off nor boosting the economy.

In the run-up to the budget, there has been no shortage of advice for Mr Healey from Yorkshire, and all of it good.

The West and North Yorkshire Chamber of Commerce, representing 5,000 employers, called for a reduction in NI contributions for the under-25s, saying that would help to tackle the awful difficulties the young are facing in trying to find jobs.

Their problems were only underlined by the announcement of 5,000 job losses to artificial intelligence at Barclays last week. Behind that dreadful headline figure surely lies a story of fewer entry-level jobs for the young because AI is taking their place.

That came hard on the heels of the 1,400 jobs lost in the Flutter betting shop chain, with many going in Yorkshire, which the company blamed on tax rises.

Individual voices from Yorkshire’s business sector have echoed the chamber’s broader concerns. Owners of hospitality businesses say increases in NI and business rates have left them struggling, and need to see rates of VAT come down as well.

Look from town to countryside, and the future is bleak for those trying to earn a living. In the last month, a survey of farmers found them reluctant to invest, and even attempting to reduce the value of their businesses, because they fear the impact of inheritance tax.

Mr Healey has wisely kept a lid on what he plans for tomorrow, perhaps learning the lessons from widespread leaks before Ms Reeves’ second budget which exposed her to criticism even before she stood up to deliver it.

Even so, it seems likely he will announce increased taxes for banks and at least some help for hard-pressed households by continuing the freeze on fuel duties at a time of rocketing petrol and diesel prices.

If, as has been predicted, online retail giants such as Amazon are compelled to collect VAT from traders using their platforms, that would raise welcome funds to boost struggling high streets.

But to make a real difference for the better – and reassure those in Yorkshire’s business and farming sectors that he understands their difficulties – Mr Healey has to tear up what has gone before, killing the reviled family farm tax and removing obstacles to companies which want to give young people jobs.

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