‘Net Zero’ is dead, it’s time to focus on ‘carbon efficiency’ instead - Chris Hocknell
Climate action shouldn’t die. ‘Net zero’ should. It is a faulty metric that creates perverse incentives. De-industrialisation is not a victory and manufacturing in Britain is not a crime. Under the current Government’s Carbon Budget and ‘Net Zero’ policy, that is exactly what they’re made out to be.
By creating a cleaner industrial base at home, we can reduce our emissions without contracting our economy. That’s why we should improve our ‘carbon efficiency’, instead of chasing the fairytale of ‘Net Zero’.
As consensus on ‘Net Zero’ breaks down, Ed Milliband’s breakneck rollout of renewables is coming under increasing pressure. This isn’t surprising; regardless of the enormous amount of turbines and solar farms being assembled on British shores, our bills creep ever higher. The Net Zero metric obscures the lack of progress we are actually making. Given the technology gaps we face, an emission-free economy is simply ‘green-wishing’. Instead of focusing on eliminating emissions entirely, we should instead focus on producing as much value as possible per tonne of carbon emitted.
The ‘Net Zero’ metric has led to some peculiar celebrations from the British government. We like to claim that we have ‘halved our emissions’ since 1990. In reality we have halved the amount of emissions emitted on British shores, while importing the goods we would have made from abroad.
This isn’t decarbonisation, it’s de-industrialisation. Since 2000, Britain has lost over 60 per cent of its steelmaking capacity. Our manufacturing sector has halved in the last 20 years. The UK imports over 90 per cent of its fertiliser and more than 70 per cent of its ceramics. We haven’t developed a domestic manufacturing base for solar panels, wind turbines and heat pumps. The discovery of ‘kill switches’ being found in British solar panels highlights a clear threat to our national security.
Each carbon budget creates an emissions cap that hinders industrial revival. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the Net Zero transition will cost 1-2 per cent of GDP annually for decades, yet this framework offers no pathway to balance this with economic growth. It institutionalises a form of managed decline, where Britain celebrates the hollowing out of its industrial base.
That’s why instead of fixating entirely on carbon reductions, we must turn our gaze to ‘carbon efficiency’.
In doing so, we can encourage growth in output while reducing emissions per unit of production, allowing businesses to expand while continuously improving environmental performance.
A ‘Carbon Efficiency’ metric recognises that emission reductions often come from competitive displacement as more efficient producers gain market share from less efficient ones.
With the rise of energy-hungry industries like AI, using less energy to create more value has become a critical competitive edge, especially when we have sky-high energy prices.
This approach leverages market forces to naturally shift production toward lower-carbon operations, without requiring low-data central planners to allocate arbitrary carbon allowances.
‘Carbon efficiency’ is a universal metric. It acknowledges that developing economies need to grow to lift people out of poverty.
By focussing on ‘carbon efficiency’, Britain can shed its green guilt and finally start building again.
Chris Hocknell is the founder of sustainability consultancy Eight Versa.