A chief strategist for Bill Clinton's successful 1992 US presidential campaign coined the phrase, “It's the economy, stupid”. And the economy will have a big say over the outcome of the next general election on this side of the Atlantic.

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, is beginning to recognise this fact. While he has been riding the wave of populism to heady highs in the opinion polls, Farage has fallen into a trap of his own making.

The leader of Reform UK has so far successfully presented himself as an alternative to the same-old Westminster politics - promising people the earth and delivering little.

His ditching of the ‘contract’ announced before the last election will now raise questions over whether Farage really is different from other politicians.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage delivers a speech at Banking Hall in the City of London. PIC: Lucy North/PA Wire

placeholder image — Reform UK leader Nigel Farage delivers a speech at Banking Hall in the City of London. PIC: Lucy North/PA Wire

From Mr Farage’s perspective it is understandable, given that the £90bn of tax cuts that the manifesto promised last year didn’t add up. It has exposed a chink in Mr Farage’s seemingly impenetrable armour - the question of whether Reform can be trusted with the nation’s finances.

Mr Farage said substantial tax cuts were “not realistic at this current moment in time” during a speech in London yesterday. The Reform UK leader predicted there would be a general election “caused by economic collapse” in 2027.

This is the problem with populism. Reality inevitably catches up.

There is a lesson for the Chancellor as well with Rachel Reeves continuing to roll the pitch for tax rises. The public deserves honesty when it comes to the economy. No matter how unpalatable it is.

Mr Farage was right to hone in on the need to be more “pro-business”. British firms are groaning under the weight of the tax burden. And policies from successive governments have done little to help them in recent years.