President Zelensky finds himself in a tricky position with anti-corruption authorities targeting key allies - Patrick Mercer

“Not a single sane person today would sign a document to give up territory… “as long as Zelensky is president, no one should count on us giving up territory. He will not sign away territory…the constitution prohibits this.”

So said Andrii Borysovych Yermak, just a few days ago. With enormous confidence the man who served as President Zelensky’s chief of staff, chief negotiator and closest aid throughout the war with Russia made it quite clear that there was to be no Ukrainian compromise.

Until the anti-corruption authorities closed in, that is. They searched Mr Yermak’s quarters whilst investigating millions of apparently misplaced dollars. A B Yermak (soon dubbed Ali Baba by Ukraine’s press) resigned and fled to the bosom of the army where, in wartime, the law says he cannot be pursued.

Whilst it’s unlikely that he’ll smell any cordite, Yermak’s hasty departure, along with a number of other ministers and business associates of Mr Zelensky, does leave the President exposed and nervous about every knock at his door. To underline that, as this is being written, Rustem Umierov, Ukraine’s former minister of defence, has also been summoned and questioned by the authorities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media during a press conference. PIC: Brian Lawless/PA Wireplaceholder image
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media during a press conference. PIC: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

The problem is that Umierov was hastily thrust into Yermak’s place as chief negotiator. Clearly, both leading figures would have mixed with US, UK, EU and, perhaps in due course, their Russian counterparts: their detention tarnishes Kiev’s reputation very deeply.

And it’s interesting that the anti-corruption blokes were trained and mentored by the FBI.

That does make you wonder about the timing of such an investigation. The fact is, these scandals leave Ukraine’s premier fatally weakened just when the White House needs him to toe the line, sign away his soil and seek peace at any price.

Then enter stage left one General Valerie Zulushny who has long been suspected of harbouring ambitions for the top job. Fired as commander-in-chief and appointed to be ambassador to London, rumours have been swirling about his setting up a political campaign team in exile.

He was safely tucked away on the canapé circuit until suddenly, just as the fur is beginning to fly, he’s back in Kiev accompanied by his wife and giving every indication that he’s there to stay.

Smiled on in Washington, fawned over by Sir Keir and his team, loved by the Ukrainian army, the only difficulty that he might face is a lack of muscle. He’s the champion of Kiev’s ‘ultras’, the fervent nationalists who wield great influence in Bankova St (Kiev’s Westminster), but their numbers have been whittled away by war.

Now, this suggests a very messy handover of power - should that even happen - but as the peace negotiations swerve and turn, a well placed Ukrainian source said,

“… it’s not impossible that we get the worst of both worlds: Zelensky compromises himself by accepting Trump and Putin‘s terms, but he is then pushed out and we end up with no deal, no US support and nothing to stop the Russians.”

What’s missing from all this, of course, is what Britain and the Europeans are going to do to support Ukraine now that US aid in all its forms is drying up. Sitting in our troubled realm one could be forgiven for being convinced by all the jingoistic talk, being thoroughly distracted from La Reeves’s woes and thinking that we’re about to get involved in a risky but worthwhile cause.

Well, we’re not. Sir Keir may talk about sending troops, aircraft and ships, but we haven’t got two destroyers to rub together, let alone enough to punish Putin. Yet the Prime Minister talks as if we have: hasn’t he listened to the brass hats and his own defence secretary? It’s bad enough having a delusional Chancellor: do we now have a PM who hallucinates?

There may be one twist in Europe’s strategy, though, which President Putin ought to take seriously. A few days ago Mssr Macron received a visit from President Zelensky and, bizarrely, talked about French troops being deployed even before a ceasefire. That makes as much sense as Sir Keir’s fantasies, but he did hint at something that’s already taking shape.

President Macron alluded to a new economic front being opened against Russia just as their fourth ‘shadow fleet’ oil tanker in a week was attacked by sea drones. No one’s admitted responsibility for what could be seen as piracy, but if these secretive craft start to be destroyed in large numbers, Russia’s economy will be sunk.

There was a wave of similar attacks a few months ago - most have taken place in the Black Sea - but even on Russia’s doorstep there isn’t much that can be done to protect this vital trade.

Set against all this was the latest round of negotiations in Moscow. President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law Jared Kushner attended the talks which lasted over five hours. A Kremlin aide described the discussion as “constructive”, but continued “we are no closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine and there is much work to do”.

Bear in mind Mr Yermak - before his eviction - made it clear that Ukraine would give up no more land. Crucially, though, Kiev accepted that territory already captured by Russia would be the starting point for negotiations.

That looked hopeful, but Mr Putin’s words set the tone for talks that were already looking forlorn, “If Europe wants to go to war and starts one, we are ready right now".

Put bluntly, there is no immediate hope for peace. Unless Ukraine can be bullied by her ‘allies’ into capitulation or Russia’s oil ships are driven from the seas in a ruthless, lightning assault, there’s a lot more fighting and misery to come.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.

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