Strikes by Ukraine on Russia are illustrative of the complexities in the war - Patrick Mercer
Moscow’s been under direct fire again. Hundreds of Ukrainian drones and some missiles were fired last Sunday night right at the Russian capital: whilst many were brought down, a number of valuable targets were damaged or destroyed. Nothing very special, you might say, both sides are constantly bombarding each other, but this is rather different for several reasons.
The first is that Moscow is the most highly protected target in Russia - yet still Ukrainian weapons got through. Next, this proves how right Mr Putin was to limit the size and style of the Red Square parade on Victory Day, May 9. Someone in Kremlin intelligence knew that the celebrations were vulnerable and weighed the embarrassment of a more modest parade against the disaster of multiple casualties on Russia’s most sacred day.
And that’s why the Kremlin responded to the promise of an attack with the almost hysterical threat of ballistic missile retaliation with the express intention of “turning Kiev to dust”, as one commentator put it. The most fascinating element in all this, though, was the unusually quiet part that President Trump played as an intermediary in the whole affair. Whilst ceasefires were offered by Moscow but rejected by Kiev and the temperature rose daily, the White House took control with remarkably little song and dance, imposed their own truce and, literally, defused things.
This was remarkable and stands on its head much of the criticism levelled at Mr Trump since operations began in Iran. Whether he’s lost control of that theatre, whether he’s overreached himself both politically and militarily, there can be no doubt that he’s still cracking the whip in Ukraine.
But, as the American imposed lull in the fighting came to an end, Kiev launched the strike that was meant for Russia’s Victory Day, almost as a show of frustrated strength. Or was it that simple? A little while before Ukraine’s drones flew, another drama unfolded in Kiev. Just over a week ago, Ukraine’s top anti-corruption court locked up President Zelenskyy’s former adviser for two months in a pre-trial detention centre with set bail at $3m.
After the high profile arrest of Andrei Yernak something like that had been expected, but the rumour that followed certainly had not. Olena Zelensky, the president’s wife, was said to be facing arrest over similar corruption charges, but she couldn’t be found. Then, almost instantly, Ukraine delivered such a blow on Moscow that turned the eyes of the world away from the supposed plight of Ukraine’s First Lady concentrating, instead, on her husband’s boldness.
Was this just Kremlin agitprop? Was the attack going to happen anyway? Well, time will tell, but a couple of things are certain: Russia’s having to deal with a corporate, gnawing doubt in the face of Ukraine’s new found skill with drones whilst Kiev’s leadership is grappling with highly threatening, internal problems.
Then study the western press; a series of articles and news pieces are beginning to sound a much more optimistic note about Kiev’s chances of victory. The Spectator has unequivocally announced that ‘the tide has turned for Ukraine’ and there are a rash of opinion pieces saying much the same thing.
So, perhaps the Kremlin’s counter strike against Kiev which followed a few days ago was an attempt to prove the western press wrong.
Several, heavy waves of drones struck right across Ukraine, but the most notable thing was that a new, ballistic missile was used without any announcement. Whilst it’s not certain yet, film was taken of re-entry, conventional warheads striking targets in the same way that the much vaunted Oreshnik hypersonic missile has performed.
Then came the announcement, with no notice, that strategic nuclear forces would be exercised over three days last week with missiles, warships and aircraft being put through their paces right under NATO’s nose. Yet, Russian rhetoric can be hard to untangle.
Most significantly, just before he went to visit China, Mr Putin said Russia had "always looked positively on any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way". Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, added that Putin's comments showed a ‘willingness to engage in direct talks with Ukraine’. Now, that’s an important first step.
Yet, like good cop bad cop, no sooner had Russia’s President spoken than the nuclear exercises began. Then the Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, upended any thaw by saying that Russia and NATO are increasingly likely to clash directly with disastrous consequences whilst accusing the West of provocation and downright lies about the Russian threat.
President Putin recently claimed that the end of the war is in sight. I can only applaud his optimism.
Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army Colonel.