The chess game that is the war in Ukraine enters its next phase - Patrick Mercer

I believe that threat is pretty hollow, though. President Obama scuttled out of Iraq then President Biden did the same but even more shamelessly in Afghanistan. The latter debacle damaged Joe Biden very heavily and was, of course, one of the sticks with which Donald Trump beat him at the last election. So, a Republican president is most unlikely to want to repeat the pivotal mistakes of his Democrat predecessors.

Also, there’s another crucial plank that America has recently put in place with Kiev. Although everything isn’t yet fully sown up, the vexed question of the US establishing mining rights for Ukrainian minerals looks as though it will go ahead. This is a huge deal, but before any US plant or engineers can start work, the shooting has got to stop. If there’s anything that binds Mr Trump into a rapid solution to the war it’s the sign and scent of money and this makes his walking away even less likely, I’d suggest.

There are two further wrinkles in this equation, though. First, the only commitment to deploy troops that the White House is making is a ring of steel that they have guaranteed to place around the sprawling Zaporhizia power plant. It’s certainly of strategic importance being in a position to supply energy to both Russia and Ukraine as well as having the potential to be another Chernobyl should both sides start fighting over the site in earnest. Yet Mr Trump has been very clear that US troops will not be placed in harm’s way in Ukraine.

Why, then, this exception? Well, American engineers will need vast amounts of power if they’re going to extract minerals effectively - and that’s the self-serving reason that Mr Trump has guaranteed a modest but muscular military presence. Second, what happened to the arrangement to mine minerals that the UK negotiated last year when we initialled the ‘100 Year Pact’ with Kiev? We don’t hear much about that, do we? I wonder if Sir Keir had been told by Washington not to confuse ambition with ability?

Meanwhile, the ceasefire game passed into a different dimension last week after our PM, President Macron, the new German chancellor and Mr Zelensky met to hammer out a fresh proposal. Shortly after the end of the meeting, Ukraine’s president said in ringing tones, “We expect a complete and lasting ceasefire starting tomorrow to provide the necessary foundation for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings.”

Then the team of four demanded of Moscow that an instant, 30 day ceasefire would take effect.

The Russian response was just as quick, telling the world that, having cleared it with President Erdogan, the Kremlin wanted to start negotiations in Istanbul last Thursday. Dramatically, Mr Putin announced this at 1.30 in the morning and underlined that Russia had no preconditions.

Within hours, Mr Zelensky replied, “I will be waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday. In person. I hope this time the Russians won’t look for excuses why they can’t.”

Now, by the time that this is published we will know whether the negotiations have started, but there are some significant hurdles to be overcome first.

Crucially, Russia has her own expectations which amount to picking up where the last session of talks in April 2022 left off - symbolically, also in Istanbul. Essentially, three years ago Russia was demanding that Kiev abandon any hopes of joining NATO, remained neutral in the future, restricted the size of her forces, forbade foreign military aid and instructors from entering the country and prepared to cede land - including Crimea.

In all but name this meant defeat for Ukraine yet, astonishingly, Mr Zelensky was preparing to agree to these terms until it’s believed that Boris Johnson stepped in and persuaded Kiev to fight on.

Now the Russians are ready to talk about peace once more, but starting at exactly the same point where negotiations failed before. Although Moscow seems to be playing nice by offering talks ‘without any preconditions’ it’s obvious that what they’re suggesting will amount to another demand for Kiev to capitulate.

Obviously, that will be unacceptable to Ukraine and her Western backers, yet Mr Zelensky’s demand for an immediate 30 day ceasefire is equally unacceptable to Moscow.

The Russians have stated quite publicly that they suspect that a 30 day ceasefire will simply be used by Kiev to rearm, regroup and receive a flow of Western weapons. Rather than that, they want to talk before any truce is agreed.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.