The economy is important but the Government needs to look beyond just GDP - Ismail Mulla

By all means Britain’s growth projection for next year putting it behind only the US and Canada out of its G7 counterparts is cause for cheer. It seems that the country has been under an interminable economic cloud post-pandemic.

Therefore the influential economic body, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), saying the UK’s GDP growth was expected to be higher than Japan, Italy and France – and equal with Germany, in its latest outlook report can only be a good sign.

But when viewed through a macro lens, it tells a different story. The UK economic growth projections for 2026 and 2027 are unchanged from the last report, at 1.3 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next year. Global growth meanwhile is projected at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.

When viewed this way, there is clearly money being left on the table. The IMF said the global economy has remained “remarkably resilient”, and there were signs that technology-related investment contributed to the UK growth, but not at the same scale as in the US.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to the SSE National Training Centre in Perth. PIC: Jane Barlow/PA Wireplaceholder image
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to the SSE National Training Centre in Perth. PIC: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

We have to maintain a level of realism, there are some economies that we simply won’t be able to compete with on the same scale. However, Britain can and should still pack a punch.

This Labour Government comes across as rudderless with U-turn after U-turn but it has to be given credit for at least understanding the importance of economic growth. The only question is will it be able to deliver said promised growth.

The recent announcements around Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) are at least an indication that the Government realises that many parts of Britain are simply not being empowered to meet their potential. Thus providing a drag on the economy.

Turning away from frontier technology is not the answer. As much as I find myself trying to eschew the use of tech in my personal life, the reality is that these are the rails that society runs on. That includes dealing with the challenges that we face for the future, such as climate change.

It is understandable that Sir Keir Starmer is advocating for a reset of the relationship with the European Union.

He obviously doesn’t want to reopen the can of Brexit worms but it really isn’t sensible politics nor economics to cut yourself off from the largest market on your doorstep.

The biggest threat to any government is an economic decline. It is quite telling that new Reform UK MP Robert Jenrick said the Conservatives’ reluctance to “kick out” former prime minister Liz Truss showed the party has not changed.

He was sacked as shadow justice secretary and suspended from the party last week after it emerged that he was planning to defect to Reform, which he duly did hours after his sacking.

The leader of his former party was right to say that the public had enough of “political psychodrama”, His tubthumping speech at his unveiling by Farage as a member of Reform didn’t cut to the chase as much as his comments on Truss.

“In 42 days, she single-handedly demolished the party’s reputation for fiscal credibility, undermined the country’s credit ratings and forced many to re-evaluate their retirement,” he wrote in The Times.

That is the essence of why the Tories find themselves where they are. Once you lose credibility on the economy it is a difficult road back. Labour was taught that lesson in 2010. The party found itself out in the wilderness because people just felt they couldn’t trust it on the economy.

But all parties must look beyond just GDP figures. A strong economy is nothing if it doesn’t pave the way for a better quality of life. You can throw out all sorts of projections but if the supermarket bill is still making people’s wallets groan and the energy bills are leading them to shiver, it doesn’t matter.

The single biggest issue is therefore inflation. Annual shop price inflation rose to 0.7 per cent in December, slightly above the 0.6 per cent increase in the 12 months, according to the British Retail Consortium. Food inflation of 3.3 per cent in annual terms last month was up from 3 per cent in November.

Shoppers are increasingly finding themselves with nowhere to turn. Even the German discounters are unable to offer meaningful savings like they were a decade ago.

Until the Government gets a grip on inflation, there will be a question mark over it, regardless of whatever projections any economic body comes up with. If working people are told to tighten their belts further they may just suffocate.

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