The war in Ukraine will not end with bluster from Donald Trump - Patrick Mercer

Clearly, the White House strongly suspected that the Russians would attack sooner rather than later, that they had plenty of troops and ammunition poised for a strike and that there were a number of weak points in the Ukrainian defences. It seemed probable that only presidential intervention would cause Mr Putin to pause, thus the meeting was called at such short notice.

But what exactly have the Russian’s achieved so far? There’s little point in reading our media, because a hopelessly optimistic picture is painted. Conversely, Russian sites would have you believe that their advances are unstoppable. But it’s the more balanced Ukrainian outlets which give the most realistic assessment, I believe.

It seems that the Kremlin’s infantry (so far without much armour) have broken Kiev’s last defensive line and are now intending to hook northwards from near Pokrovsk and out flank the bulk of Ukraine’s field army whilst capturing what remains of the Donbas.

There’s plenty that can foil that, of course. Counter attacks might be devastating, Russian reinforcements may not be able to exploit their gains and a host of other things can happen. But, many of Kiev’s more knowledgeable commentators are deeply worried, pointing to the fact that the cupboard is almost bare in terms of reserves that should be able to stem the Russian tide.

One thing might work, though: the intervention of Donald Trump. Yesterday’s meeting may well have changed the entire picture, but the main actors’ ambitions are so at odds with each others’ that I doubt it.

Initially there was President Trump’s curious statement. He suggested that there would have to be some “swapping of territories” for the “…betterment of both sides”. Well, nice idea, Donald, but delusional.

First, any re-arrangement of borders has been made illegal under Ukrainian law. Second, such a betrayal would, at best, see Volodymyr Zelensky ousted from office and, at worst, he might become the victim of deeply angry veterans who would brutally resent land that had cost so much blood to defend being traded away.

Last, Ukraine has nothing to swap. Since the defeat of her incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast a few months ago, Kiev has zero with which to bargain. Please don’t tell me that Mr Trump wasn’t aware of that when he suggested it?

Next to make a pitch was Britain, France and Germany - the so-called Coalition of the Willing. After rather a lot of hot air, the trio fell in behind the Ukrainian president’s default position that Kiev would never surrender any of its territory, despite the fact that it was this very obduracy that caused several fallings out with the Donald.

Now, the Coalition knows that US support for the war is waning fast, but they also know that even their combined military might is risible when compared to Russia’s. True, Europe’s rearming, but it will take several years before they have the weapons and materiel to even think about taking the field against Moscow whilst no-one has yet addressed the problem of raising hundreds of thousands of troops.

No, whilst Ukraine reels, Europe can only rail. The Coalition simply isn’t credible.

Then there’s Russia’s position. Certainly, she’s been threatened with further sanctions, including parallel ones against nations like India to whom she sells enormous quantities of oil. But sanctions have been tried before and expert consensus seems to be that they’re only partially effective.

People also neglect the fact that the four oblasts that Moscow partially seized from Kiev have now formally become part of Russia. In the eyes of the Kremlin, swapping Zaphorizia - say - for the slivers of the Donbas that Putin’s lads have not yet taken is as illegal as Mr Zelensky doing the same with bits of Ukraine.

Finally, of course, comes the brutal truth of the battlefields. Whatever reverses, embarrassments and tactical errors there have been and the legions of dead Russia has suffered, she now - incontrovertibly - has the upper hand. Her troops may have been grindingly slow and never exhibited much tactical flair, but now her men are fighting so much more nimbly.

Kiev had placed huge hope and endless resources into creating a belt of fortress cities in the western part of the Donbas. Slightly to their rear lies a new trench and strongpoint system designed to support the towns, but west of all this there is nothing - just open, undefended fields and woods all the way to the great Dneiper river.

Suddenly, just as intelligence suggested, Russian troops are through these lines, albeit in modest numbers, but they’re moving fast and could soon render the urban, fortress belt useless as they would come at it from the rear.

I may be mistaken: as Clausewitz said, war is the province of confusion and Mr Putin may have overreached himself, but that’s certainly not what many, respected Ukrainian analysts expect to happen.

If all this is true, Mr Trump and the Coalition can talk as much as they like, but the issue will be decided by bayonets rather than bluster.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.