There is a very real threat of nuclear war breaking out - Patrick Mercer
For the last couple of weeks there’s been a deep rumble of war. Most people are distracted by various elections or, if they have an eye to foreign affairs, the brutal quagmire in the Middle East, yet lurking under the headlines have been a series of chilling threats and acts which are pushing us towards an awful blood-letting in Europe.
The latest crisis revolves around Russia’s continuing operations to drive the Ukrainians back from the border in the area of Kharkov and Sumy. Until recently, most of the fighting has happened in territory that Russia has already taken from Ukraine in places like Zaporizhia and the Donbas i.e. not former Russian soil.
In the north, though, the Ukrainians have frequently fired artillery, bombed and even launched ground attacks over the border into ‘Old Russia’, all of which was containable until the issue of Western supplied weapons came into focus.
Many NATO long range weapons including US multiple rocket launchers and British Storm Shadow cruise missiles have already been used with mixed success against targets in Russian occupied Ukraine and there’s now talk of F16 fighter-bombers being ready to deploy to the front. But, until the last few days, such equipment has been forbidden to be used inside Russia proper for fear of a dangerous escalation.
But, from the Belgorad area - which is Russian - Mr Putin’s troops have been able to bombard Ukraine’s Kharkov region with impunity. With Kiev forbidden to use Western supplied weapons against troop concentrations, ammunition dumps etcetera, the Russians have swarmed over the border and even if they haven’t made startling advances, they’ve caused Kiev to send her sorely stretched reserves northwards, away from critical spots in the Donbas and elsewhere.
In the face of all this Mr Zelensky has pleaded for the West to relax restrictions. As a result, many nations have done so including, most importantly, the USA who have partially relented, but only allowing targets around Belgorad to be hit.
Similarly, Britain’s Foreign Secretary has blessed the use of our missiles on Russia (although Mr Sunak appears far from clear that he, the prime minister, has condoned it), although it’s Germany’s position that is most revealing.
Until now, Mr Scholtz has said that his country wouldn’t give cruise missiles to Ukraine as that meant German operators being put at risk on Ukrainian soil. Berlin’s position is now evolving, but only after the Chancellor spilled the beans that other NATO countries already have their troops in Ukraine. Although it’s an open secret that NATO has soldiers at the front, the fact that most Western equipment is now being allowed to fire ‘deep into Russia’ starkly spells out that Allied troops are directly attacking Russia.
Meanwhile, the emergency has been deepened by France deciding to deploy her uniformed soldiers to act as instructors in Ukraine. The Russians have retorted that they will not hesitate to kill them whenever they get the chance, but there’s an even more sinister twist that developed a few days ago.
Across Russia there are ten very long range radar equipments which are designed to detect inbound, intercontinental missiles. Installed during the Cold War, but meticulously maintained and updated, four point broadly north and six south with a view to giving early warning of a nuclear strike. Now, over the past couple of weeks there have been three attacks on the southern stations of which one failed outright, but two succeeded in damaging their targets, perhaps severely.
Whilst Ukraine took the credit for these attacks claiming that one of their drones flew over 1,000 miles to hit its target with great precision, it has to be asked why Ukraine was even involved in such operations? Kiev doesn’t have nuclear weapons: if she did, such an attack might make sense, but she doesn’t.
Even more intriguing, the southern chain of stations covers as far as the Gulf and their umbrella shelters Iran - an ally of Russia - who, it’s said, is close to becoming a nuclear power. Now, these precision blows might make (highly risky) sense if they’d been carried out by Israel, America or NATO more generally, but apparently they weren’t.
Not very much is known about this, but it’s certain that whether they were homegrown Ukrainian weapons or Western ones fired from Ukrainian soil, they must have been directed by NATO satellites. Further details will emerge about this affair and there may be more raids to come, but by taking responsibility Kiev has propelled herself into a nuclear arena - an arena in which it’s deeply unwise to trespass.
There are plenty of critical voices close to the Kremlin which say that President Putin is too soft, that the bear has been poked enough. Well, with NATO rallying around stricken Ukraine and holes being knocked in Russia’s nuclear defences, we must soon find out whether Moscow is as bold, determined and defiant as she claims.
Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.