Think you’ve had a tough week? Try walking in Zelensky’s shoes - Patrick Mercer
Think you’ve had a hard week at work? Well, measure it against Volodymyr Zelensky whose nation and very life now hang in the balance. With events moving at the pace that they are, who knows what will have changed by the time that his article lands on your breakfast table.
Whatever the ins and outs, whatever the theatre and posturing, it’s clear that President Donald Trump and his team believe that the war in Ukraine has already been lost. With the spectre of Joe Biden’s debacle in Afghanistan still hanging over the White House, Mr Trump is hastily trying to disassociate himself from NATO’s latest embarrassment. Now listen closely to the President’s address to Congress last Tuesday and you’ll hear that he’s dramatically changed his tune. No longer has Mr Putin’s invasion been caused by Ukraine’s behaviour, it was President Biden’s shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan that emboldened the Russians and precipitated the invasion of 2022.
The difficulty for Mr Trump, though, the reality that he wants to skate over, is that he has as much responsibility for affairs in Ukraine as his successor. It was during his first term - or Trump 45 as it’s now being called - that aid to Ukraine was ramped up. Indeed, during the Oval Office row the Donald forgot himself, reminding Mr Zelensky how grateful he should be for the Javelin anti-tank weapons that he’d ordered to be delivered from 2017 which had blunted the Russians’ northern thrust towards Kiev. But, he soon collected himself, brushed over his responsibility for events before the hot war started and returned to his role as peacemaker.
And that’s what the Oval Office ambush was really all about. Team Trump has identified two major obstacles to peace and the resetting of power. First is Mr Putin and the incontestable fact that he now holds rather more than a fifth of Ukraine (indeed, he’s declared these conquered territories part of Mother Russia, territory that, constitutionally, cannot now be let go) including the areas of that country that are richest in mineral deposits. Things would have been so much simpler if the Russians had been defeated or even fought to a standstill: they haven’t.
Ignore the shrieking of many Western ‘experts’ when they declare that Russia cannot continue the combat for much longer: that’s tripe. Moscow has certainly taken casualties, but her battle hardened troops are killing Ukrainians at an alarming rate and are now poised for a final offensive.
And that was the opportunity that Mr Trump saw. If he could reason with President Putin, talking above the heads of Kiev and the Europeans, it might be possible not just to cut a deal, but also peel Russia away from Iran and China.
With one half of the problem bought off - perhaps only temporarily - the other remained: the determinedly awkward but apparently popular Mr Zelensky. Remember, though, the pressures that the Ukrainian premier faces. He came to power promising peace; he had the chance to end the killing in April 2022 and now he has to balance everything between his major sponsor, the US, and his direct minders - the people who plan his everyday military operations and strategy - the British. On top of this, though, are his own, restive people.
The Western press seldom mentions the often violent turbulence of Kiev’s internal affairs. Such a grip does the regime have that Mr Zelensky’s actual popularity is never talked about, but it’s suggested that when elections eventually take place he’ll be beaten. Zelensky’s understandable paranoia about this is not helped by the presence of General Valery Zalushny, the former commander in chief who was exiled to become ambassador to London and who is now widely expected to succeed Mr Zelensky.
Similarly, the dreadful casualties that Russia has caused are a closely guarded secret. The wrangling over conscripting 18 year olds and battle field commanders’ constant complaints about their lack of manpower all point towards the fact that recruiting is extremely difficult. As one brigade commander said, “US weapons seem vital until you realise that we haven’t the men to pull their triggers”. Ukraine’s own resources are drying up.
Add to all this the violent voices of Ukraine’s extreme right wing - euphemistically referred to as ‘nationalists’. Azov, Right Sektor and the like ardently believe that death is better than any betrayal. But here’s the rub: when Mr Zelensky refused to initial the minerals’ deal with Washington a few days ago, the denizens of the Right applauded loudly; such proudly resolute leadership got their muscular vote.But America’s response was equally blunt: all aid, all money and materiel would be suspended until Zelensky signed.
Now it seems that Mr Zelensky will give away billions of dollars worth of mineral rights: this should rub salve into the Oval Office bust up and allow Mr Trump to pursue his deal with Moscow. And that agreement will stop the shooting because it means that Russian and American companies will start their joint rape of Ukraine’s riches.
Yet that leaves Mr Zelensky as the meat in a sandwich full of razor blades. America’s bargain with Russia means that the conquered lands east of the Dnieper cannot be given back to Ukraine: by signing up to this treaty, Mr Zelensky will have effectively given away everything he swore to protect.
To borrow Hobbes’s words, should Zelensky return to Kiev where he’ll face the ‘nationalists’, I suspect his future might be nasty, brutish and short.
Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.