Ukraine: How Boris Johnson can confront Putin’s Russia and turn crisis into PM’s ‘finest hour’ – Patrick Mercer

MR Johnson must be having a bad hair day: the line I constantly monitor marked ‘‘10 Downing Street’’ has yet to ring. But, in the light of the crisis in Ukraine and assuming the Prime Minister had a few minutes to squander, what advice would I give?
How should Boris Johnson - and the West - face down President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine crisis?How should Boris Johnson - and the West - face down President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine crisis?
How should Boris Johnson - and the West - face down President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine crisis?

With the caveat that I previously suggested that Russia couldn’t afford to invade, that no generals advertise their battle plans and that only fools assault in this part of the world in freezing February – yet President Putin went ahead anyway – I do have some points.

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Now, Big Dog, remember the axiom that the first casualty of war is truth. I was in Crimea in 2014 when Russia went on the offensive: neither sides’ broadcasts bore much relation to reality. I was reminded of this listening to the BBC. Then, look up maskirovka. Simply put, it’s the Russian military doctrine of deception at all levels – political, strategic, tactical – which means that shaking your head and muttering ‘‘But Putin said he wouldn’t invade’’ is futile.

This was Boris Johnson addressing MPs on Thursday over the Ukraine crisis.This was Boris Johnson addressing MPs on Thursday over the Ukraine crisis.
This was Boris Johnson addressing MPs on Thursday over the Ukraine crisis.

The West practises deception, but for Russian officers and ministers with the imprint of Stalingrad and Kabul on their foreheads, it’s an art form and central to any plan. Also remember, the Ukrainians were taught in the same school.

After that, study Mr Putin. He’s been in power for a long time and that will give him a (perhaps misguided) sense of invincibility. It’s worth remembering, though, that despite his Soviet and KGB background, he has a profound, Christian faith and still wears his baptismal cross.

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Then add furious church politics to this in the shape of the Ukrainian arm of the family of Orthodox churches declaring its independence from the Russian Orthodox Church in 2019. Kiev is as iconic to Russian Orthodoxy as Belarus and Crimea and accept, terrifyingly, that once Mr Putin starts to roll, his militant faith means that he’s unlikely to be deflected by words or sanctions. That’s why Russia’s ambassador to Sweden put it so succinctly: “We s**t on the West’s sanctions.”

How should Boris Johnson  face down President Vladimir Putin and Russia over the Ukraine crisis?How should Boris Johnson  face down President Vladimir Putin and Russia over the Ukraine crisis?
How should Boris Johnson face down President Vladimir Putin and Russia over the Ukraine crisis?

Next, while studying the doctrine and the man, look at the recent past. Realise that Georgia in 2008, Crimea and Donbas in 2014, Belarus and now Ukraine proper all follow broadly similar patterns. Tension is followed by detente, with Moscow being flattered and cajoled by all manner of Western leaders.

Then Russia strikes anyway, fur briefly flies, there’s universal horror, wringing of hands and crocodile tears. After which the just settles, sanctions falter and the West does… nothing.

Why wouldn’t President Putin be emboldened by this pattern, especially after President Biden played such a blinder in Afghanistan? So, Mr Johnson, why not talk the talk, shine Ukrainian colours on Downing Street and ultimately do nothing?

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There is an alternative, though, but it involves steely leadership. Crucially, stop looking at today’s Russia as wannabe Soviets. Then recognise that Nato was instrumental in the collapse of Red Russia, but missed a strategic trick by not wooing the new regime and trying to ally with them. The West’s argument lay with communists: by confronting heir successors we drove them into the arms of China.

Remember, Putin’s Russia admires strength and guile, scorns the West’s moral softness and is prepared to accept risk and death in pursuit of its aims. If, Mr Johnson, you want to confound this, you’ll have to do what you’ve always dreamed of doing: you must become our Winston Churchill.

In the late 1930s Britain was still exhausted from the Great War and led by a scarred generation who had sworn not to repeat the experience. Yet, in the face of this, an extraordinary clutch of exceptional ministers, industrialists and officers dragged Britain into readiness to fight the Nazis.

Today we are facing a country whose GDP is two-thirds of ours, but whose armed forces are five times bigger and which – as we’re now seeing – is skilled at war. Squaring up to President Putin will need a total reset not just of manpower and resources but, most importantly, of mentality.

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You’ll need to put your spurs to Nato and show unfaltering leadership by rearming while demanding that the others follow our example. Now is not the time to be reducing our surface fleet and axing 10,000 soldiers and – vitally – our commanders must be purged of ‘‘wokery’’. How, for instance, could the Chief of the General Staff have insisted that the Army lay down its arms for a complete day to study ‘‘inclusivity’’?

Many will cry that such things are impossible in a modern, liberal democracy. But, Mr Johnson, you oversaw the complete re-gearing of our economy to combat Covid.

Only the vision and fortitude of Churchill and a handful of others goaded tired, debt-
ridden, nervous Britain to rediscover her valour and, 
with her Allies, face our 
darkest hour. Now you, Prime Minister, must recognise the severity of the next challenges to the Baltic States (all Nato members, unlike Ukraine) and from China too.

To quote Churchill, this is 
you and your Government’s “special moment”. What a tragedy if that moment finds them unprepared or unqualified for that which could have been their finest hour.

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Patrick Mercer is an ex-soldier and former Conservative MP for Newark.

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