Ukraine: Why Nato must take Putin’s nuclear and chemical weapons threat seriously as world leaders meet – David Hobbs

IF President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, is to be believed, Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is proceeding “in accordance with the original plan” and will be completed on time and in full.

Of course, Mr Peskov is not to be believed. President Putin’s invasion plan was flawed from the start because it was based on the false assumption that Ukraine would offer little resistance.

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But Ukrainians – whether they be Ukrainian or Russian speakers – cherish their country’s identity and independence, and they have amply demonstrated their determination to preserve them. And what sort of a plan seeks to “liberate” a people by killing them in their thousands, displacing them in their millions and reducing their cities to rubble?

The brutality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to reverberate around the world.The brutality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to reverberate around the world.
The brutality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to reverberate around the world.

Did the plan also envisage uniting Nato, the European Union, and most of the democratically inclined nations of the world in their condemnation of President Putin’s regime? Surely not, but that is what has happened.

But although “Plan A” lies in tatters, President Putin has decided to press on with his invasion and it is incredibly difficult to anticipate his next moves, let alone work out what to do about them.

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However Nato’s leaders will be trying to do just that at an extraordinary summit in Brussels today. They will certainly endorse measures already in hand to protect those countries who joined the Alliance after the end of the Cold War.

How should Nato leaders react to President Vladimir Putin and Russia's invasion of Ukraine?How should Nato leaders react to President Vladimir Putin and Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
How should Nato leaders react to President Vladimir Putin and Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Some Nato countries also seem keen to discuss an “off-ramp” for President Putin: in other words, some sort of formula that would persuade him to de-escalate the conflict. Not surprisingly, many other countries – including the United Kingdom – see that as a distraction, if not a fool’s errand.

The simple fact is that President Putin will make his own “off-ramp” whenever he decides – this is the same Kremlin dictator who entertained and then ignored a procession of prominent political figures arguing for de-escalation before he turned the crisis into a conflict.

Unfortunately, the more pressing matter is how to prevent President Putin from escalating the conflict even further. The most alarming possibility would be a demonstration of nuclear force to cow Ukraine into submission. Some analysts argue that a Russian concept known as “escalate to de-escalate” makes that a possibility, although – more reassuringly – others believe that it would only be invoked if Russia found itself defending its own homeland.

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That is the interpretation put forward very recently by Mr Peskov, so we can hope that not even President Putin would consider an escalation to that level, despite his dark warnings and nuclear sabre rattling.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses MPs in the House of Commons earlier this month - what should Nato leaders decide when they meet in Brussels today?Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses MPs in the House of Commons earlier this month - what should Nato leaders decide when they meet in Brussels today?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses MPs in the House of Commons earlier this month - what should Nato leaders decide when they meet in Brussels today?

But there are other truly appalling options which might still be on the cards: thermobaric and chemical weapons.

Thermobaric weapons produce a longer-lasting blast than traditional explosives and their lethal shockwave can penetrate deep into fortifications. Russian forces appear to have used such weapons in Ukraine already, but their use could be scaled up with devastating effects on defending forces and civilians who have been unable to evacuate the area.

Perhaps even more alarming is the possible use of chemical weapons. Russia has been making false claims about secret Ukrainian chemical – and biological – weapons, and the obvious concern is that this is to prepare a pretext for Russia to use them itself.

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Russia must have been complicit in the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons against insurgents and has used them itself in the “Salisbury Poisonings” and the assassination attempt on Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Would President Putin be tempted to use chemical weapons against a city’s defenders, instead of engaging them street-by-street? Might that even prevent forces from trying to defend other cities? Certainly, the rest of the world would be outraged and horrified, but what could they do, and what would they do?

Those questions need to be thought through exceptionally carefully. Deterrence is a complicated business. Clear red lines and spelling out the costs of crossing them might only tell an adversary how far they can go, while being too vague can lead to dangerous misunderstandings about where any red lines might be.

But some means must be found to ensure that President Putin views the costs of using chemical weapons as utterly unacceptable – in any circumstances.

David Hobbs is the former Secretary General of the Nato Parliamentary Assembly. He is currently CEO of the Atlantic Treaty Association of the United Kingdom. He lives in Ilkley.

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