What is Sir Keir Starmer doing making impossible promises to Ukraine? - Patrick Mercer

Well, with neither these gentlemen nor our nominated ambassador being invited to the Inauguration last Monday, the signs are clear that the ‘special relationship’ is already heading for the rocks. So, with his usual tin ear, the PM has already caused a wholly avoidable problem. Why didn’t he just do nothing as true statesmen sometimes have to do?

Sadly, the same lack of judgement marks Sir Keir’s recent trip to Ukraine. Now, with a new US President’s position on Russia-Ukraine far from settled, why did our PM feel it necessary to go to Kiev and make completely unrealistic promises? The situation for the Ukrainians is difficult enough already - Russia made this clear by hovering one of their drones within earshot of the British delegation to Kiev - yet any reassurances will be seized upon by this embattled nation. Whilst the 100 year treaty signed between London and Kiev is certainly eye catching, in reality it’s as thin as paper.

Certainly, there are guarantees of funds and weapons which are important, but the new elements are based upon what Britain will do once a ceasefire takes effect. Don’t ask ‘what ceasefire?’; don’t ask why Russia should cease her bloody romp westward which has only been made easier by a lack of wholehearted Nato support. Ask instead why our PM has made ludicrous proposals.

For instance, Britain has mooted maritime support in places like the Black Sea; that’s practical, but suggesting that our fleet and aircraft could help to dominate the Sea of Azov is demented. In 1855, during the Crimean War when we had the most powerful navy in the world, we could only make incursions into this sea. Today it’s completely surrounded by Russian territory that’s crawling with men and kit, with any chance of our forces surviving there depending entirely upon the Crimea being in Ukraine’s hands. Forgive the pun, but that ship sailed long ago and Mr Starmer should understand that.

Then there’s the plans for British and French peacekeepers to man some sort of buffer zone between Moscow’s and Kiev’s forces. Just pretend for a moment that Mr Putin is prepared to freeze the conflict (and tell his generals who are currently sensing victory to sit on their hands). However unlikely that is, a number of courses of action are already being discussed. First, aircraft and sensors will be deployed right along the thousands of kilometres that make up the front lines, with muscular quick reaction forces stationed some way back and ready to deal with any infringements.

Then there’s talk of a ring of Nato steel being put around the capital, Kiev. Bristling with air defence and strategic reserves, Western troops would protect the seat of power whilst keeping vital military, energy and communication hubs safe from Russian missiles and drones.

Last, British instructors could be deployed into Western Ukraine as they were before the invasion of February 2022. Whilst there are undoubtedly technical skills to be taught, some Ukrainians who have already been trained in the UK have questioned exactly what Britain’s peacetime army can teach those who have seen months or even years of hard combat. Many have suggested instead, that it ought to be Kiev’s lads training ours.

In parallel, it’s thought that France’s troops might concentrate around the strategically vital port of Odessa, but what is certain is that no US forces will be involved. Keith Kellogg, who’s leading the US team charged with finding a solution to peace in Ukraine, has already made this clear.

So, the bill for kit and manpower is going to be significant, even if it’s a combination of only some of these proposed tasks. Let’s guess that it’s 20,000 British troops who are needed; that means 60,000 allowing for rest and training: 70 per cent of the entire British Army committed to one job. Even half of that - a modest 10,000 men - would be impossible to manage; remember, the Defence Secretary has already stated that Britain’s army cannot fight.

Next, Vladimir Putin stated that he will not tolerate Nato troops facing off with his men. If such a deployment happens, he’s said, the Westerners will be attacked.

So, Sir Kier, why are you leading Mr Zelensky down the garden path? A hundred year pact, indeed, when we have neither the forces for the job nor the political stomach for another, foreign adventure of Labour’s making. And if it’s said that our PM simply wasn’t aware of these military details, then he damn’ well should be.

I’m reminded of Hitler in his bunker as the Allies closed in on Berlin in 1945. It’s sometimes claimed that the Fuhrer would order long dead or decimated brigades and divisions to fend off the Red Army, whilst none of his staff officers dared tell him the unpalatable truth. But such delusions were the result of long years of intense, wartime pressure: our PM’s barely started and he’s already seeing khaki fairies at the bottom of the garden.

Perhaps Sir Keir needs a large scale map and a set of crayons. Then Ukraine’s ambassador - the battle hardened General Zalushny - should stand over him and show him which bits should be shaded in which colours.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.