What next as Donald Trump turns his attention to Ukraine? - Patrick Mercer

Over there the embattled Volodymyr Zelenskyy is having to cope with yet another crisis. Very shortly he’s going to have to ask his parliament to extend martial law for a further 90 days: that means that starting the process of presidential elections can be delayed yet again.

Now, that’s a gift to his enemies and - despite what the Western media portrays - his popularity is waning. Look no further than the widespread demonstrations that followed his recent decision to emasculate anti-corruption agencies and the violent, gutsy opposition from the people that the military recruitment units have to endure every day.

As usual, though, everything for Mr Zelensky rests on the fortunes of war. Although his front lines are tottering, there has been real success for Kiev with their deep strikes against Russian fuel and energy plants. Everyday there’s footage of drone and missile assaults far inside Russia, usually accompanied by images of huge plumes of black smoke billowing from refineries and the like.

This is certainly hurting the Kremlin. Those with whom I’m in contact write of severe petrol shortages for their cars and lorries and deep resentment towards the petrol companies whom they expect to buy and maintain their own air defence systems rather than relying upon the government’s and the army’s resources.

That’s why the Tomahawk missile issue is so important. Let’s be realistic, there’s nothing modern or particularly special about these cruise missiles. As a friend of mine who was there said, “…the Serbs were knocking those things out of the sky back in the 90s”, but they do have a longer range than any other munition that’s being used at the moment and they can be tipped with nuclear warheads.

Then it comes back to the well worn argument of whose intelligence will target these weapons and will NATO gunners press the final button to launch them? The Kremlin has said that both issues cross their oft brandished ‘Red Lines’, but it’s been obvious for months that the precision of Kiev’s aerial attacks on fuel depots is not home grown. Similarly, if the expert who pulls the trigger has been, as the spooks say, ‘sheep dipped’ - given a new uniform, identity discs and passport - is he still a NATO soldier?

No, whilst the Tomahawk issue is significant, it’s largely window dressing. If Mr Zelensky can demonstrate to his increasingly restive voters that Uncle Sam has done with bickering and is back on side to the extent that new ‘wonder weapons’ are being delivered, then that will buy him some more breathing space.

Similarly, there’s mileage here for Mr Trump. Whether his peace deal in the Middle East holds for the long term is less important than the immediate headlines. For the near future he’s a peacemaker, his claims have come true and his reputation’s been burnished.

But the Americans have a real knack for naming their weapons imaginatively, don’t they? No limp sounding Taurus’s or Flamingoes; who can fail to imagine Mr Trump in feathers and war paint slinging axes at Mr Putin? But the reality matters less than the Hollywood image: the very name ‘Tomahawk’ tells the world that Sitting Bull is on the war path and his next stop will be the Kremlin.

But what will Russia do? It’s hard to untangle Western propaganda from that coming from Moscow. The former tells us that Mr Putin presides over a roiling, unstable country whose economy is shot, yet the man himself seems unruffled. There’s certainly plenty of (perhaps misplaced) confidence amongst his General Staff who seem to think that Ukraine’s all but finished and the next target’s in sight.

Martin Jaeger, the chief of German intelligence certainly seemed to underline that when he said, “We can’t simply wait and assume that a potential Russian attack won't come before 2029…We’re already under fire today."

He’s referring, of course, to what NATO calls ‘Phase Zero’ and what Russia refers to as a ‘special period’ - a time of provocation immediately before war breaks out. We saw exactly this in the autumn of 2021 when explosions, skirmishes and the like were engineered in the Donbas and pinned on Ukraine.

So Russia’s allies and people were primed to think themselves under attack, the defence from which was the Special Military Operation which followed.

An identical pattern is happening right now, but writ large.

Drones are flying over NATO borders almost daily, Russian aircraft are intruding into Western airspace whilst the Kremlin’s ‘shadow fleet’ of faceless tankers under neutral flags are getting bolder in the sea lanes.

But I wonder if Moscow’s aim is more about demonstrating the possible cost of outright confrontation rather than preparing to strike first? It looks to me as though NATO’s being offering a preview of what combat with Moscow might look like, rather than winding up for an imminent assault.

Remember, Russia’s now had plenty of time to hone her battle skills whilst we’re still deeply unprepared. I hope that President Trump is now ready to pitch again for the elusive Peace Prize.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.