Who is Sue Gray and what power does she have over Boris Johnson and Downing Street’s ‘partygate’ scandals? – Matthew Flinders

But when Sue Gray was asked to investigate and report on “gatherings” held at 10 Downing Street during the pandemic, her status as “the most powerful person you’ve never heard of” was suddenly shattered.

Why Boris Johnson must resign over Downing Street’s boozy lockdown parties and contempt for Covid families – Tom Richmond

By this point, you’ve almost definitely heard of her. But do we really understand what power she has in relation to Boris Johnson’s premiership?

Gray is a hugely respected civil 
servant who once took a career break in the 1980s to run a pub in Newry, Northern Ireland. The pub attracted drinkers from across the sectarian divide and maintaining order may well have prepared her for the challenges of regulating government.

She would later apply these skills as the Cabinet Office’s head of ethics and propriety (2012-2018) where she oversaw inquiries into a number of tricky topics, including allegations concerning Damian Green who had to resign as Theresa May’s de facto deputy and also the “plebgate” inquiry that saw Andrew Mitchell lose his job as Chief Whip.

From 2018-2021 Gray served as the permanent secretary of the department of finance in Northern Ireland and then returned to the Cabinet Office in May 2021.

A stellar career indeed, but all these years of service have not necessarily translated into great power when it comes to Gray now. It’s vital to note that this is an internal official investigation. It is not a parliamentary inquiry, let alone an independent statutory inquiry. This means that in strict constitutional terms the final report will end up on the desk of the Prime Minister.

Depending on what the report finds, it could lead to officials facing disciplinary proceedings and possibly even dismissal. But specific HR matters like this will remain confidential and it will be up to the Cabinet Secretary to decide how to proceed. The fact that Gray only took on the investigation when Simon Case, the Cabinet Secretary, was himself forced to step down from leading the inquiry makes the whole affair even more complicated.

The inquiry does not have the power to determine whether the law was broken or not, and the Metropolitan Police has generally been reluctant to get involved. Even if the Gray report outlines serious breaches of the ministerial code, it is Boris Johnson who decides what action, if any, should be taken.

But in some ways, an assessment of Gray’s formal powers or constitutional position risks completely missing the point. Her inquiry matters for one simple reason: it may provide the spark and the ammunition that brings Johson’s government to an end.

The basis of this argument is to be found in the vast wealth of political science on blame-avoidance behaviour and intra-party politics. Put very simply, Boris Johnson has always adopted a high-risk approach to political life.

For him, rules were designed to be broken, conventions cast aside, restrictions rejected on the basis that such almost blame-seeking behaviour sustained not only almost constant 
media attention on him but also 
celebrity status among the public. 
This is exactly why Tom Bower’s biography of Johnson is sub-titled The Gambler. It’s also why constitutional commentators such as Peter Hennessy have sought to focus attention on the weakness of a constitution that relies almost on the voluntary self-restraint of the executive.

Johnson’s premiership has therefore been based on a very specific bargain. A largely reluctant Parliamentary party begrudgingly supported Johnson’s brashness and buffoonery on the basis that he could at least attract and maintain the support of large sections of the public.

But if his popularity takes a nosedive then the bargain will quickly be terminated and Johnson appears to have little in the bank in terms of friends or favours to call in that might help him survive a potentially damning report. And if evidence emerges that he did know more than he has previously admitted, then a charge of misleading Parliament could prove terminal.

The Gray inquiry is not really about parties, gatherings or “bring your own booze”. It is a lightning rod. It provides a test case for how to litigate multiple long-running anxieties and concerns about the Prime Minister’s approach to governing.

Gray has no interest in bringing Prime Ministers down. She has no power to bring the Prime Minister down. But because the essential focus of her inquiry is on whether Johnson can be trusted to follow the rules or tell the truth, it resonates far beyond its formal terms of reference or status.

Matthew Flinders is a professor of politics at the University of Sheffield.

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