Why Labour needs to be wary of the threat posed by Reform UK at the ballot box - Ismail Mulla

Based on polling of more than 16,000 people, the data suggests a potential fracturing of the vote that could reshape the electoral map.

We’ve had polls suggesting similar paradigm shifts before that never really materialised. A great example was in 2010 when the Lib Dems were soaring in all the polls until the exit poll and subsequent result of the General Election brought them back down to earth with a rather big bump.

But then there have been warning signs for past governments that their policies and messaging are not landing. That seems very much to be the case.

It’s too simplistic to view the current political landscape through the old left-right spectrum. There are people who were once big Jeremy Corbyn fans that have now pivoted towards Reform.

What they want is change for the better. A change that was promised by Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour. Even if the majority of the electorate didn’t believe it, that was still at the heart of Labour’s manifesto. Instead what they feel they have got is change for the worse.

While Labour’s majority at the last General Election was impressive on the surface, the big caveat was the low turnout. Turnout last year was 59.7 per cent, the lowest at a general election since 2001.

This is why last year’s election was not a rerun of the 1997 ‘things can only get better’, cool Britannia, New Labour victory. Back then the turnout was 71.3 per cent. Even though it was down on the previous election, it was clear that the mood had shifted.

The mood has not shifted. There is still a feeling of discontent at the Government. For many it is simply a case of a change of rosette but not circumstances.

Too often Labour feels like it is governing by focus group rather than taking the initiative.

The one area where Sir Keir Starmer excels at and this is reflected in polling is on the international stage, where he has been proactive and shown genuine leadership.

Reform UK is evolving. Nigel Farage is a canny political operator. It will hand onto its existing position on issues such as immigration but it is now beginning to outflank Labour. That was evident when Farage called for British Steel to be nationalised before the Government took action.

In fairness, Labour inherited a situation that was never going to be easy to turn around. To say that the Tories had left behind a mess would be an understatement. Rather they had set fire to the carpets, daubed graffiti on the walls and smashed the windows. Therefore it will be very much a case of trying to turn around a tanker that was so obviously headed in the wrong direction.

But macro headlines are only going to go so far in convincing people that their lives are getting better. People in places like Barnsley and Hull are not going to care one jot that GDP rose 0.1 per cent if they can’t afford to turn on the electricity at home.

Political parties, the successful ones, shore up their core support before an election, having tried to govern from the centre throughout parliament. That might not be the case for Labour given the shift that we have seen in our political system.

Reform UK is the fox in the henhouse but while observers expected it to devour the Tories, it could well end up picking off Labour.

Any attempt by Labour to try and shore up its support just before an election could be seen as a move borne out of desperation.

And it is in Yorkshire where the greatest threat lies for the Government. Out of the 20 seats with the lowest turnout, six were in the county. All of them were Labour holds but the spectre of Reform UK looms large.

Next month’s local elections will provide a clearer picture of whether Reform UK’s opinion poll support translates into support at the ballot box and the by-election in the Runcorn and Helsby seat vacated by former MP Mike Amesbury will provide a clue as to the dynamics of a Labour v Reform electoral battle.

But one thing is for certain, Labour has a lot of work to do, and fast.