Why there is a ray of hope for peace in Ukraine but can it be sustained? - Patrick Mercer

Looking at the Kremlin’s rhetoric and, much more significantly, the way that Russia’s now geared her economy for war, I’d suggest that she views the Special Military Operation as only a stepping stone to further adventures. I’d wager that Russia’s modernisation of her fleets, the creation of a regular army and her investments in space and cyber technology do not augur well for the future.

The hawks in Moscow are eyeing up several possible, strategic objectives now that a direct intervention by America under her new leader has been ruled out. Even during Donald Trump’s first term and then certainly during the Biden years, the threat of US military action and a wider NATO involvement was a guarantee that Russia would not chance her hand beyond the already perilous situation in Ukraine.

But, with the almost complete shift of power that Mr Trump has embraced in his second term, those same Russian hawks must hope for further opportunities. First comes the Russian speaking port of Odessa which many in the Kremlin view simply as unfinished business.

This great city was within Russia’s grasp in the first few months of the fighting and its continued freedom now allows Ukraine’s naval drones to dominate the western part of the Black Sea and trade to flow. Many, influential Russian extremists believe that this cannot be tolerated.

Similarly, the situation in Moldova is unsatisfactory from the hawks’ point of view. Should Odessa be taken by or ceded to Moscow, a swift move north to link-up the Russian sympathetic eastern region of Transnistria would, at the same time, put Vladimir Putin’s men within striking distance of NATO bases in Romania and might seem to be very attractive to many on Russia’s right.

Then, grand strategically, some in the Kremlin will be pondering if it is now possible for the long festering boil of Kaliningrad to be lanced. Russia’s heavily armed enclave on the Baltic sits between Poland and Lithuania and any attempt to drive a land corridor to it from Belarus, would, until Mr Trump’s re-election, have guaranteed war with NATO. But now?

With the US’s threats to leave Europe to fend for herself and the Alliance fracturing, might Russia be tempted to roll the dice in a way that she would never have dared until recently?

So, on the assumption that US plans will prevail, that Ukraine’s hand is forced and up to a fifth of her land is left permanently in Russian hands, Moscow will claim victory. Whatever one’s sympathies and hopes, it’s hard to see any other major conclusion now that Mr Trump has so conclusively flipped the coin to Russia’s advantage.

But, emerging from this mist of diplomatic contradictions and harsh realpolitik come some disquieting truths.

One of the only good things to emerge from the deeply sad death and then the solemn funeral of The Pope, was the opportunity for Presidents Trump and Zelensky to meet. Clearly, such a rendezvous could not have been organised very far in advance, but it must have given Ukraine’s premier the opportunity to tell the head of the USA some harsh truths.

First, Mr Trump’s evident frustration with Ukraine’s stance obscures the fact that Mr Zelensky is in an impossible situation. No matter how much the US insists that he cedes land to Russia, he cannot without endangering both himself and the power base in Kiev that has fought so gallantly for so long.

The ugly fact - and it’s a fact that the Western media conceals - is that Mr Zelensky is having to deal with a very strong body of extreme nationalists in Ukraine embodied by the Azov Regiment and other political/military bodies that make Mr Putin’s ultras look like pussy cats.

It’s worth noting that two, new army corps that are being raised by Kiev at the moment are led by a cadre of officers who first served with Azov.

In other words, any attempt by Mr Zelensky to surrender Ukrainian soil must lead to his own resignation and a forced change of regime in Kiev. Now, I wonder if that unpalatable truth is understood by Mr Trump? Perhaps that’s just what he wants - Moscow would be delighted - but the disappearance of the gallant Zelensky and his replacement by a Washington/Moscow puppet or a home grown, extremist regime would be a very sad and dangerous day for Ukraine.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.