Will the dangerous waltz of war in Ukraine ever end? - Patrick Mercer
Will it never end? No, not the dervish dance of Sir Keir Starmer and his demented deputies, but the insidious, dangerous waltz of war in Ukraine. Certainly, it’s faded from the headlines, masked by our own, domestic chaos, but still it lurks ready to spring up and bite the world at a moment’s notice.
So, as we broach the fourth year of war it might be timely in this article and the one next Saturday to look at the bones of the war and, perhaps, try to assess where it might be heading next.
The spine is not Ukraine and her allies, but the Trump/Putin axis. This can be dealt with very easily. It’s worth mentioning that far from Mr Trump’s claims that this is “Biden’s war” and comparing it with NATO’s debacle in Afghanistan, it was he who armed Kiev so thoroughly in his first term in office.
Well, now he’s tired of the whole mess. The Donald - perhaps pragmatically, perhaps immorally - recognises the simple opportunities of trading with Russia rather than fighting her and now that Mr Zelensky has shown his mettle, Washington wants nothing more to do with him.
Mark well the US’s freshly hatched National Security Strategy (NSS). Having digested it, Mr Medvedev - a previous Russian president - stated that, “…the NSS unexpectedly aligns with Russia's ideas about the need to share security and respect the sovereignty of states”. Adding, "a window of opportunity for dialogue" is now "ajar."
In short, Trump’s America has got bored.
Russia’s position is now equally simple: she’s on the front foot militarily, senses a (Pyrrhic) victory and with the same memory of the West’s shame in Afghanistan is prepared grimly to flog on. Remember, for Russia this is no longer a blitzkrieg: Ukrainian resolve has forced her into attritional tactics.
And ignore most media’s wishful thinking about Moscow’s casualties and economic woes, she’s got plenty of gas in her tank. The Kremlin believes that if diplomacy fails, bullets will always win. Again, in short, Mr Putin’s in it for as long as it takes.
Necessarily, Mr Zelensky’s position is rather more complex. He came to power promising to end hostilities with Russia and probably knowing that Crimea and most of the Donbas was forever lost, despite his rhetoric. Now much has changed and despite his undoubted bravery and stubborn leadership, many believe that he is the prime obstacle to peace.
Putting Western propaganda to one side, though, Ukraine’s politics has always been bedevilled by corruption and elements of extreme nationalism. Both are now deliberately downplayed, but look no further than Volodymir Zelensky’s mockery of each aspect in his own TV comedy Servant of the People before he came to power.
Speculation about their own President’s future is constant in Ukraine’s media. Many outlets believe that Zelensky will be pressured to resign due to the corruption cases that are now coming to a head.This would allow the Rada (parliament) to appoint a new Speaker who would become acting president and sign the peace agreement. Others say Zelensky might quit quietly to avoid being the one who actually initials a compromising deal.
Still more Ukrainian analysts highlight the various factions who would like to see the back of Mr Zelensky. Figures such as Klitschko, the Mayor of Kiev, the former president Petro Poroshenko, NGO’s tied to the US Democratic party, officers within the anti-corruption agencies and Ihor Kolomoyskyi’s - the influential oligarch - group: they all seek to disrupt Zelensky’s grip on the Rada. That could lead to a ‘government of national salvation’ and squeeze the current president out.
Now, none of these factions are strong enough by themselves and that might lead to a ‘neutral’ figure such as Zalushny (the former commander in chief and current ambassador to London) being appointed. He’s already ‘on manoeuvres’ in Kiev and has the additional advantage of being the favourite of the nationalist battalions. Under his popular leadership a makeshift coalition might be able to break the Servant of the People faction.
Add to this the pressure on Mr Zelensky from an increasingly impatient White House. Only one aspect of the peace plan really matters - Ukraine’s agreement to withdraw from the fortress cities in Donetsk without further fighting.
Mr Zelensky might try to disguise a withdrawal as part of his latest strategy to fall back wholly onto the defensive. That’s unlikely to wash with his own nationalists, though, and he’ll be left with no option but to sign or quit. It’ll then just be a question of whether Mr Zelensky is hurled from power due to his own people or his ‘friends’ in the White House.
Now here’s the next worry bead: frozen Russian assets. Again, it’s a simple argument, but its outcome is complex and pivotal.
Billions of Russian dollars lie in Western deposits with America, London and the EU looking hungrily at them. There are all sorts of plans for the Kremlin’s money ranging from weapon purchases right the way through to funding reparations for Ukraine, but for all the schemes there are as many disagreements. Whilst our government intends to ante up €8bn, the lion’s share rests in Belgium - about €180bn.
Meanwhile, have you ever wondered why Britain is such a bellicose cheerleader for this distant war? I’ll try to answer that next Saturday.
Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.