What we’ve learned from Yorkshire voters this election - Matthew McGregor, CEO, 38 Degrees
“There’s children starving, mums and dads having to go to food banks. Food Banks are at a record high of being used because people literally can’t afford to eat. And he said that he’s ‘poverty stricken’.... to go without Sky.”
Renee is a constituent of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and her comment in a focus group last week summed up the Yorkshire view of the Conservatives in this election: out-of-touch and letting us down.
Since the election was called, the campaign community I run, 38 Degrees, has worked with the polling firms JL Partners and Survation, and the Yorkshire Post to learn about what voters in the region think as polling day draws closer. We’ve used focus groups, voter panels and constituency level polling to hear from voters, shine a spotlight on the issues affecting them, and to put their voices at the heart of this election campaign.
Reflecting on what we’ve learned there are three big takeaways. Firstly, the cost of living crisis continues to hurt most of us, and people are desperately worried about the NHS. Secondly, people are fed up with politicians, cynical about their motivations and pessimistic about their ability to improve the country. And finally, with a landslide seeming all but inevitable, it is clear people want and expect Labour to step up and deliver bold change that they’ll see play out in their own lives.
Whatever the result next week, it is clear that people in Yorkshire want and desperately need change.
Nearly half the voters in Richmond and Northallerton, the PM’s own seat, say they feel worse off since the last election, while just 14% feel better off. One in three have cut down on basic necessities like food and heating, while more than half say they’ve cut back on the little things that make life enjoyable, like the cinema or dinner out. No wonder that one voter, when asked about the big priority for the next government, came straight to the point: “I feel like it’s the cost of living: focus on those that really need the help in this country, that have tried to help and do their bit.”
Along with cost of living, the other issue dominating at this election is the NHS. As local man Paul told us: “It’s full of broken promises, the NHS, and we all know that that’s the foundation of the country, without it we’d be in a worse state”. More than half of voters in the region think, based on their experience in the last year, that the NHS is in a crisis. A third are either on, or have a loved one who is on, an NHS waiting list. People want solutions, starting with looking out for the NHS heroes who care for us. As local woman Emma told us: “If we don’t look after those in [medical] jobs then how are they expected to look after us in our time of need? I think there really should be a focus on prioritising those members of staff.”
So people want change. But will they get it? The stark truth is most people aren’t holding their breath. When we asked voters in Yorkshire about Labour’s plans for the NHS, their responses were peppered with pessimism and cynicism. Asked if Labour’s plans for the NHS were ambitious enough, one local voter who backed the Tories in 2019 said, “No. Needs a huge amount of money injected into the NHS. Need to increase taxes on higher income earners.”
Years of hardship in the country and scandal in Westminster has left a lot of people wondering if politics even works. People want change, but they daren’t hope it is possible. This means, after 4th July, the new government will face two jobs: actually delivering change, and persuading people it is really happening.
When people tell you plainly what they think, you should listen. The findings of the 38 Degrees partnership with the Yorkshire Post are clear. Voters want to see the NHS saved and they want help with the cost of living a little. Many have given up on politics as a way of solving their problems. They’re both pessimistic and desperate to have a bit of hope. If Labour wins the election, their to-do list will be long, and people’s expectations will be high. But it’s likely they’ll have a mandate to do big things. It will be on Keir Starmer and his team to move quickly to deliver the change that Yorkshire, and the whole country, is crying out for.
Given the 38 Degrees partnership with the Yorkshire Post has been about putting the voices of local voters front and centre, it’s only right we close with the words of someone local, who perfectly sums up what Yorkshire voters have told us. Asked for a message for the next PM, Grant said: “Just give us hope. Give me hope that things can be improved.Hope that the cost of living is going to be sorted out, hope that it won’t just be another person in power, and another day that goes by.”