Battleground Yorkshire: 12 Yorkshire constituencies to watch on election night

Current: Labour

Majority (old boundaries): 3,571

Predicted win (latest YouGov MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 37pc, Reform 34pc, Green 10pc

Predicted win (latest Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 50pc, Reform 30pc, Con 12pc

Despite being what should be Labour-only ex-mining country, Reform UK could run the party close. Nigel Farage return as leader means frontbencher Dan Jarvis will face a much more difficult battle. Even if Labour wins, it will be a top target for Reform if the party becomes a real electoral force in the years to come.

Brigg and Immingham

Current: New seat from Conservative areas

Majority (old boundaries): New seat

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Conservative

Predicted vote: Con 36pc, Lab 33pc, Reform 23pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 36pc, Con 28pc, Reform 25pc

The Reform surge could hit the Tories hard in areas it has held for years. Labour lost these areas when it last left government in 2010, and with Sir Keir Starmer set for a return to power, these seats are needed for the “supermajority” the Tories warn of.

Sheffield Hallam

Current: Labour

Majority (old boundaries): 712

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 43pc, Lib Dem 37pc, Con 11pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 38pc, Lib Dem 36pc,Con 21pc

The only Labour-Liberal Democrat battle in Yorkshire, and indeed in the country, is set to be narrowly won yet again by Labour. It is one of only two Lib Dem targets in the region, and their performance might give an indication of how well Labour is able to squeeze their vote across the country.

York Outer

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 9,985

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 39pc, Con 33pc, Reform 12pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 45pc, Con 23pc, Reform 16pc

This seat should be the easiest win for Labour on our list, but polling suggests that things could be closer than expected. This seat is a must-win for a decent Labour majority, with news of failure here on election night suggesting that Labour will be having a much worse night than seat projections have suggested.

Beverley and Holderness

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 20,448

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 33pc, Con 32pc, Reform 22pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 38pc, Con 27pc, Reform 21pc

Energy minister Graham Stuart quit his job in government to campaign in his seat in April, and it’s not hard to see why. Despite a majority of over 20,000, polls suggest that he is set to lose the seat to Labour with a strong Reform showing hitting the Conservatives in its former-heartlands.

Dewsbury and Batley

Current: New seat from Labour and Conservative areas

Majority (old boundaries): New seat

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 36pc, Reform 21pc, Con 9pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 59pc, Con 23pc, Reform 6pc

A wildcard choice as it’s a new seat with complex local politics and the variation in polling is intriguing. Independent candidates hammered Labour in the local elections over its stance on Gaza. If replicated at the General Election, Labour could be in for a tricky night.

Bridlington and The Wolds

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 22,787

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Conservative

Predicted vote: Con 37pc, Lab 29pc, Reform 21pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 36pc, Con 27pc, Reform 24pc

Formerly East Yorkshire, this seat has the highest proportion of pensioners of any seat in the region. Polling suggests that these voters are the Conservative’s only remaining loyal voter base. Losing here would be catastrophic, indicating that the party’s support has completely disintegrated.

Goole and Pocklington

​ Current: New seat from Conservative areas

Majority (old boundaries): New seat

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Conservative

Predicted vote: Con 36pc, Lab 32pc, Reform 21pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 36pc, Con 30pc, Reform 21pc

This new seat with heavily redrawn boundaries will be contested by the former cabinet minister, and one-time Tory leadership finalist David Davis. Winning this seat would have been beyond Labour’s ambitions only months ago, but with the Tories dropping sharply in the polls, and Reform on the rise, it is now in play for Sir Keir Starmer.

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 9,675

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Lib Dem

Predicted vote: Lib Dem 45pc, Con 27pc, Lab 10pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Lib Dem

Predicted vote: Lib Dem 35pc, Con 27pc, Lab 22pc

The Liberal Democrats’ most realistic hope of a seat in Yorkshire rests here where it has been campaigning relentlessly for months. The party has been hammering its message on sewage and healthcare and looks set to take the seat from the Conservatives in an area it last won in 2005.

Skipton and Ripon

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 23,694

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Conservative

Predicted vote: Con 35pc, Lab 31pc, Reform 18pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 34pc, Con 28pc, Reform 20pc

Home to Julian Smith, the former cabinet minister, this would be a major scalp for Labour on election night. It looks to be a close-run contest which shows the steady shift towards Labour in North Yorkshire in recent months. An influx of ex-city dwellers could be key to winning this largely rural seat.

Richmond and Northallerton

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 27,210

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Conservative

Predicted vote: Con 41pc, Lab 26pc, Reform 17pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 34pc, Con 29pc, Reform 19pc

Rishi Sunak could become the first Prime Minister to lose his seat at a general election if some polls are correct. A perfect storm of local and national factors, such as the reaction to the D-day incident among its large armed services population, could make the impossible possible on election night.

Thirsk and Malton

Current: Conservative

Majority (old boundaries): 25,154

Predicted win (YouGov MRP): Conservative

Predicted vote: Con 37pc, Lab 31pc, Reform 18pc

Predicted win (Savanta MRP): Labour

Predicted vote: Lab 34pc, Con 28pc, Reform 22pc

Labour has no business even being competitive in a seat like this, yet somehow they are. The vast rural seat is home to current Tory minister Kevin Hollinrake and would, save from winning Rishi Sunak’s seat, be the most outstanding win in the region for Labour given it has never held this seat in history.