Battleground Yorkshire: Hull could have been the Tories’ next Teesside

At the time, the former shipbuilding heavyweight had become a magnet for international gangs, bringing with it an increase in drugs and crime.

Since then the city has improved, with the arrival of Siemens’ turbine manufacturing facility allowing the area to rebuild its industrial past, as well as being named UK City of Culture in 2017 to showcase it is more than machinery.

Despite this change is not happening fast enough for many in the seat.

Between 2020 and last year the life expectancy for a man born in Hull was less than 74, in Hart in Hampshire this was more than 83.

During the Brexit referendum 67.6 per cent voted to leave the EU, three years later when this did not happen it was the only seat where fewer than half of the electorate voted in the general election.

Westminster only had itself to blame for not spotting this, with Andy Burnham, the then shadow home secretary, noting that the Remain campaign was failing to reach Labour’s heartlands, saying the focus was “‘too much Hampstead, not enough Hull”.

Hull’s Brexit vote was condemned at the time, with the city viewed as somewhere that depends on foreign investment for its renewal.

That investment and renewal could still come, but Hull often takes a unique and more belligerent route to it.

“It is a little bit different in Hull,” says Karl Turner, the successor to John Prescott in the East of the city.

“We do tend to do things our own way,” he adds.

It’s true. The area’s telecoms were not served by BT, so it had to do things itself, with Kingston Communications becoming the provider for residents and source of the city’s cream-coloured telephone boxes.

“It’s had to do things its own way because of the attitude that central governments have had to the constituency,” Mr Turner says.

“I remember, and I mean this sincerely, going literally begging and pleading to David Cameron and George Osborne to show a little bit of interest in Siemens coming to Hull.

“The reality was that they had to be pulled, and dragged, because actually Hull didn’t matter to them very much.”

Since then things have arguably changed with Michael Gove, who made a devolution deal for Hull and East Yorkshire a top priority in his years as Levelling Up Secretary.

The area has finally signed a deal, but it has been a long time coming, initially rejecting proposals for a mayor so it could continue operating without one, until it became clear it would miss out on further powers and funding if it kept going down that route.

There is still substantial local opposition, with many believing that the area doesn’t need another layer of local government. It makes sense that an area that has largely had to try and do things its own way should be left to get on with the job.

Understandably, Labour MPs locally aren’t big champions of the deal negotiated by the Lib Dem and Conservative councils in the area.

“I think that deal can be improved by a Labour government,” says Mr Turner.

"I don't think you need a mayor. Frankly, I don't think you need to elect another sort of politician to decide where the money's gonna be spent.

“I think it's it's unnecessary for a small deal to have an elected mayor.”

There are very good reasons why it might, with Labour’s push for more major infrastructure and big green energy projects at the heart of its big-ticket policy offer.

Similarly, its infrastructure review has the former Siemens CEO, Juergen Maier, on its expert panel.

But, local politicians and national government will need to get a move on, with South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and North Yorkshire all up and running with their own mayors and devolution deals.

Labour will be hoping to install its own mayor in Hull and East Yorkshire, but this represents a lost opportunity for the Conservatives.

In 2019 the Conservatives reduced Labour’s majority in the seat to less than 1,300, and on another day may have taken John Prescott’s old seat, something that would have been unthinkable only a few years previously.

Had Levelling Up delivered, Hull East could be on the cusp of becoming Tory, along with Hull West, which would have been lost to the Tories in 2019 if it had been fought on this election’s new boundaries.

It could have opened a door for a Tory mayor in Hull, able to help shape the coastal industrial strategy of a former Labour heartland in the same way as Ben Houchen has done on Teesside.

What is listed as a Conservative “attack seat”, being within striking distance of victory, national polling for the party has robbed them of that chance, meaning that they will be fighting a defence across the country, rather than breaking new ground.

As with dozens of other seats across Yorkshire and the North, Hull East is a message of “what could have been” for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson.

Delivering Brexit and delivering Levelling Up were two vitally important policies that his government had to stick with, and at one time it seemed that he and his party would be able to do the decade-long task of making it work and reaping the electoral rewards.

Instead this seat like so many will either remain Labour or return to the fold, while Conservative figures such as Ben Houchen remain an oddity in his popularity and delivery locally against national unpopularity and stagnation nationally for his party.

In July all signs to it being Labour’s turn to make change stick, with Levelling Up, infrastructure and industry, being at the heart of its mission.

Hull has been waiting a long time to get the attention it needs, and has been doing things its own way for decades, but will likely be able to achieve much more if it finds a willing partner in government that wants to invest rather than neglect it as it has before.