Bill Carmichael: Beyond Brexit, EU fault lines are showing

Theresa May? If you get most of your news from British news outlets such as the BBC, you would be forgiven for thinking her job is on the line.

No, the real drama in Europe is happening far away from the Westminster bubble in capitals such as Berlin, Vienna and Rome, and it is the German Chancellor Angela Merkel who is worried she may not survive the summer.

Indeed, compared to the trials of Angela, Theresa has got it easy.

And here’s is a curious thing – despite slapping themselves on the back for their progressive internationalism and characterising anyone who disagrees with them as knuckle-dragging xenophobes, it is the Remainers who are the parochial Little Englanders.

They are so obsessed with Brexit they find it impossible to lift their eyes beyond the horizon of the White Cliffs of Dover.

They seem to think the globe revolves around Brexit and the entire world hangs on every word of Remainer heroine Anna Soubry – but I am afraid it just isn’t so.

Most of Europe has accepted that Brexit is going to happen and it has already been “priced in” to their political calculations. Look beyond the English Channel and you see the real story – increasing signs of growing fractures that put the whole future of the EU in doubt – from Sweden to Italy, from Poland to the Netherlands, and it has got absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

A combination of stagnant growth, high unemployment and uncontrolled mass immigration has put Europe’s political structures under unbearable pressure.

In Germany, Merkel’s decision to throw open Europe’s borders to over a million migrants – without a single security check – has proved to be a disaster, with rapidly increasing violent crime and terrorist atrocities, such as the Berlin Christmas Market truck attack in which 12 people were murdered in 2016.

Faced by a revolt from her CSU coalition partners in Bavaria, Merkel this week agreed to compromise on her open doors policy and to set up “transit camps” along German’s southern border and to speed up deportations of ineligible migrants.

But it is not clear how this will work practically or whether it is even legal under international law. And the junior coalition partners, the left wing SPD, is opposed to what it calls “concentration camps” and has threatened to collapse the coalition if the plan goes ahead. Merkel is not out of the woods yet.

If that happens Germany could well close its southern border, which in turn would force Austria to close its border with Italy – further infuriating the Italians who are already in the midst of an anti-EU populist revolution.

It is not putting it too highly to say the entire future of the EU is at stake. Don’t take my word for it. This is what Mrs Merkel told the Bundestag this week: “How we deal with the migrant question will decide whether Europe continues 
to exist in the future.”

To be frank, so far the signs look far from promising. Compared to the havoc in the rest of the EU, Theresa May’s troubles are little more than some minor local difficulties. To suggest the peaceful border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic is on a par with the utter chaos descending on borders across Europe is simply ridiculous.

Mrs May, who met her German counterpart yesterday, gathers her Cabinet together today amid much speculation of a major split and threats of rebellion if she goes soft on Brexit.

Morley and Outwood MP Andrea Jenkyns, for example. sought to stiffen Mrs May’s sinews with a piece of blunt Yorkshire advice in an interview this week: “Prime Ministers keep their jobs who keep their promises.”

Mrs May responded by making further pledges at Prime Minister’s Question Time. The Government would ensure, she said, that “we are out of the customs union, that we are out of the single market, that we are out of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, we are out of the Common Agricultural Policy, we are out of the Common Fisheries Policy, we bring an end to free movement, we take control of our borders, we have an independent trade policy”.

That seems unequivocal to me. There is no going back. The question now isn’t whether the UK is leaving, but whether the EU can survive in its current form.