Local elections 2026: Sir Keir Starmer's future is on the line on Thursday

Beyond the important matter of who will set your council tax, pick up your bins and tackle fly-tipping, the result could potentially change the Prime Minister.

Labour faces losing power in Wales for the first time since devolution, while historic councils in Yorkshire that have voted red for generations like Bradford and Barnsley could go as well.

The fate of the Prime Minister hangs in the balance. Less than two years after a historic general election win, his party is languishing in the polls.

Sir Keir has been dogged by scandals during his time in No10, the most damaging of which was his appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.

He was warned about the potential of Lord Mandelson posing a “reputational risk”, as well as his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, yet he still appointed him.

This has called into question his judgement and character, with the Labour leader in Scotland Anas Sarwar already calling on the Prime Minister to resign. This is why the local elections matter enormously to Sir Keir’s future.

Some Labour backbenchers have already warned that a poor result could be terminal.

Jon Trickett, the left-wing MP for Normanton and Hemsworth, told me: “The May elections, this is a big moment and I think the Government will have to come to a judgement if those elections are as difficult as the polls are currently saying.

“If we don’t make a change and the May elections are bad then I really think the Government will have to change in a very significant way, and Keir Starmer will have to look in the mirror.”

The potential for significant change is certainly the case in Yorkshire. Overall, there are 422 council seats up for grabs in the west, south and east of the region.

While most councils usually elect in thirds, due to boundary changes five of the eight going to the polls on Thursday are all out.

This means in Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Wakefield and Barnsley all councillors are up for election - and massive change is on the way.

West Yorkshire could go from Labour controlling all five local authorities in a majority or minority administration, to only retaining Leeds.

What impact will this have on the councils and the combined authority led by Labour mayor Tracy Brabin?

Faced with potential wipeout in West Yorkshire, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor and Leeds West and Pudsey MP, told The Yorkshire Post on a visit to Armley that “we’re working hard at the moment … we’re turning things around”.

She cited the £117 average reduction in energy bills last month and “the Pride in Place funding which is about regenerating some of those parts of the country that have too often been forgotten in the past by politicians”.

“I recognise as well that the conflict in the Middle East is putting pressure on families and businesses across Yorkshire at the moment,” she said.

“We are pleased to be able to take that money off bills, pleased to be able to help with the cost of heating oil, and obviously we're keeping fuel duty under review, but the best way to get prices down is to de-escalate this conflict.”

Facing down Labour all across West Yorkshire, from Hebden Bridge to Huddersfield and Headingley, are the Greens, who are hoping for a record number of councillors.

Leader Zack Polanski has been touring the region, with people queueing around the block to watch him speak.

Backstage at an event at Wakefield, where the Greens could hit double-digit numbers of councillors, he told The Yorkshire Post: “Winning and breaking through is the aim at this election and then at future elections you look to build and start to lead oppositions and start to lead councils.

“In other parts of Yorkshire, like Sheffield, we’re obviously further along the line.”

He said the Greens would be targeting deeper inroads in Sheffield, Bradford and Halifax where they already have a base of councillors.

“The message is the same wherever we are in Yorkshire - the old two parties have let you down and people are ready for difference,” Mr Polanski said.

“I know I’m not the only party leader saying that at this election, but the distinction is I would say Reform wants to further the division in our communities.”

Nigel Farage’s party is tipped to win in Wakefield and Barnsley, while also making inroads in Calderdale, Hull and Kirklees.

Reform deputy leader Richard Tice however refused to identify a specific target, in an extensive interview with this paper.

“We're just saying to people, if you want change, you've got to vote for it,” he explained.

“If you vote for the status quo, if you vote for the uni-party, there's no difference between

the main two, then you'll get the status quo and nothing will change.

“I think we're going to surprise people on the upside - there are a lot of shy Reformers out there, across Yorkshire, across the whole of Great Britain.”

However, Mr Tice refused to promise Yorkshire voters cuts to council tax, something his party have come under fire for failing to deliver.

When quizzed on whether his party would be able to cut council tax in Wakefield or Barnsley, Mr Tice said his “common sense councillors” will “cut out waste and cut out unnecessary spending”.

The Conservatives are not in a position to win any of the councils outright, however, writing in The Yorkshire Post, leader Kemi Badenoch pledged that “under my leadership we have changed”.

“We have recognised where we went wrong, and we are using our time in opposition to ensure we have the plans and the team to make sure we don’t make the same mistakes again,” she said.

“I know what my principles are, and I know what it means to be a Conservative. And everyone who stands for us knows and believes the same.

“Across Yorkshire, in Leeds, Sheffield, Hull, Keighley and Halifax people are telling us the same thing. They want safer streets, thriving high streets and councils that deliver value for money.

“That is what Conservatives deliver. It is what we are campaigning to bring to communities across Yorkshire.”

The Liberal Democrats are hoping to hold onto Hull and make in-roads in Sheffield.

They are fighting twin threats - Reform in the former and the Greens in the latter.

In Hull, council leader Coun Mike Ross is trying to position his party as the alternative to Mr Farage and Reform UK.

He said: “We’ve been working hard for many months - we certainly feel very competitive in a number of wards across the city.

“We recognise that the national picture is affecting people’s voting intentions, which is not uncommon but more prevalent than we’ve felt for a number of years.

“While people are clearly very, very unhappy with the Labour government, we still stand to benefit from that.”

He described the Reform factor as “strong” and said that while “some people are voting for Reform as a protest or wanting to make a change … there are also undoubtedly many more people who are against Reform”.

Coun Ross said that the Liberal Democrats “across large parts of the city … are the obvious choice for stopping Reform in Hull”.

What’s clear is that there have never been more parties vying for power across Yorkshire.