New poll pushes Andy Burnham-led Labour above Reform

A new poll with Andy Burnham as Labour leader has pushed the party above Reform in voting intention.

The More In Common poll asks: “Imagine Andy Burnham was the leader of the Labour Party.

“If a general election was called tomorrow, which party would you vote for?”

This means Labour moves from third place in current voting intention on 21 per cent to first place with 27 per cent.

Reform, currently topping polls with 28 per cent, drops down to second place with 26 per cent if Mr Burnham is Labour leader.

The Conservatives stay on 22 per cent but drop down to third place.

In particular, Labour gains support from the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and people who don’t know who to vote for.

Mr Burnham also beats both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage in head-to-head polls on who would make the best Prime Minister.

This is an improvement on Sir Keir Starmer who, while ahead of Mr Farage, is bested by the Tory leader.

And among voter groups, according to More In Common, Mr Burnham improves on Sir Keir’s favourability amongst every voter segment.

This includes amongst the more socially conservative and fiscally left wing voters in the Red Wall who have moved to Reform, as well as progressives who have migrated to the Greens.

In particular, the former was shown in the Makerfield by-election, where Mr Burnham won almost 55 per cent of the vote, more than the Reform UK and Restore Britain vote share combined.

The Wigan constituency had one of the most pro-Brexit in the 2016 EU referendum, and one of Reform’s best second places in the 2024 election.

However, Mr Burnham comfortably out performed the polls and extended Labour’s majority.

This convinced the vast majority of Labour MPs that the former Greater Manchester Mayor is the leader to take on Mr Farage.

Under Sir Keir, Labour was decimated in a number of Yorkshire councils in last month’s local elections.

The party lost control of Barnsley, Kirklees, Bradford, Calderdale and Wakefield to Reform, in the latter losing 56 of its 57 councillors.

However, More In Common’s Luke Tryl described the night of the Makerfield and Aberdeen South by-elections as “unarguably Reform’s worst night since the general election”.

He said there was “barely any increase in their vote share in Makerfield” with a 20-point Labour win in a seat that was “one of their best second places in 2024”.

Restore Britain’s 7 per cent in Makerfield means if “replicated elsewhere in fragmented politics [then] Reform’s path to government becomes very very hard”.

Mr Tryl added that the “Tories show proof of life and even momentum in battle for the right with Aberdeen South win”.