Reform would win 17 seats in Yorkshire and take constituencies of Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and John Healey in new election, mega-poll suggests

Nigel Farage’s Reform Party would win 17 seats in Yorkshire in a new General Election – beating Labour cabinet ministers Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and John Healey in the process, new polling has suggested.

Analysis done by thinktank More in Common for the Sunday Times has created a seat-by-seat analysis using survey data from more than 11,000 people to forecast what the result of an election would be if held today.

It suggests that nationally Labour’s current 411 seats would be cut to 228, with the Tories increasing their number of MPs from 121 to 222. It is projected that Reform would overtake the Liberal Democrats as the third largest party, going from five MPs to 72 with Ed Davey’s party seeing their numbers decline from 72 to 58.

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In Yorkshire, the analysis forecasts Reform gains in the Doncaster North constituency of Ed Miliband, the Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley seat of Yvette Cooper and John Healey’s Rawmarsh and Conisbrough constituency.

It also projects Reform victories in Rother Valley, Rotherham, Doncaster Central, Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme, Barnsley South, Barnsley North, Normanton and Hemsworth, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Leeds South West and Morley, Spen Valley, Bradford South, Halifax, Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice and Kingston upon Hull East.

Alan Cook, one of the party’s regional vice chairmen, told The Yorkshire Post: “I am not surprised Reform UK are polling well in these areas. Labour is no longer the party for the working class.

“Reform UK is gaining huge support in these post-industrial areas; areas with down to earth, hardworking people who want real policies that benefit the UK and not the damaging, globalist ideologies of the other two parties.”

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Meanwhile, the Conservatives are expected to win the seats of Colne Valley, Ossett and Denby Dale, Scarborough and Whitby, Redcar and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland from Labour.

Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said on X that the results should not be taken as a projection of how the next General Election, due in 2029, would play out but does indicate how voting patterns are evolving.

He said: “We are likely four years away from any election - lots is likely to change before then (and we will revise our model). Rather it gives a flavour of how sentiment has shifted since July and reveals we are now firmly in the age of multi-party politics.

"Since July, Labour has lost a big chunk of support in a very short time, Conservative recovery so far has been narrowly with core votes, Reform have real momentum, the SNP are benefiting from Labour woes and the Lib Dems are likely to be very resilient.

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"This is further confirmation voters are unhappy with status quo and increasingly tempted outside of the traditional model of party competition as a result.”

Earlier this month, a separate poll on voting intentions by Find Out Now put Labour in third place behind the Conservatives and Reform.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said at the time the party had inherited “significant challenges” since coming into office but was putting the country on the right track.

She told the BBC: “I know people are impatient for change and people are very angry that they see (what) they were promised.

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“So, for example, when we left the European Union, people were promised more money into the NHS, your living standards will be better, and the opposite has happened.

“I know people are impatient for change, but I also know that people will give us that opportunity and will judge us, and that’s why Keir set out the clear guidelines on what people should expect we will deliver.”

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