Report claims Leeds Bradford Airport expansion could be worth £2bn to economy

Volterra Partners, an economics firm which investigates transport schemes, estimated the “economic footprint” from LBA’s proposed £150m expansion would total just under £2bn between 2024 and 2050.

It follows a report earlier this month by the New Economics Foundation think tank, which estimated the amount leaving the economy over that period could be as much as £3bn.

But Volterra, having been commissioned by Leeds City Council to look at the claims, said the city region would only likely lose £533m to outbound tourism.

The firm said it had undertaken a similar, cost-benefit analysis exercise to see whether the likely impact of the LBA expansion would be positive at the Leeds and West Yorkshire level.

It added: “The conclusion reached is that it would be overwhelmingly positive when economic and social welfare impacts are considered together.

In a cost-benefit breakdown, the report claimed that the region would see £1.95bn added to its economy between 2024 and 2050, while costs relating to climate change and a carbon subsidy would amount to £967m over the same period.

It added, however, that money lost through outbound tourism over that time be estimated at £533m – £187m more than the amount extra inbound tourism would bring to the region.

Overall, it estimated the net benefits to the Leeds City Region would total £1.574bn over 26 years.

The report added: “Even after factoring down some of the estimated benefits, the partial exclusion of outbound

tourism costs in the impact assessment leads to a significant positive overall socio-economic impact as a result of the expansion of LBA, at both the Leeds and the Leeds City Region level.

“Whilst this exercise is naturally high level and therefore to some extent indicative in nature, the difference between total benefits and total costs expected at both the Leeds and the LCR level is large enough that small tweaks to the assumptions outlined above would not make a material difference.

“The question of whether the impacts would be net positive at

the national study area level remains unanswered as it was not the primary purpose of this review; it is up to the members of Leeds City Council to decide the geographical area at which they believe it is most appropriate to assess the net impacts of the proposed development.”

The report follows a document produced by environmental think tank the New Economics Foundation (NEF), which suggested £3.1bn could leave the city region’s economy overall. It added that massive costs to communities around noise pollution and air quality.

Volterra’s report stated: “The NEF put forward some valid arguments in their rebuke of the proposed expansion of LBA.

“Given the variation in direct employment at UK airports, it is considered a fair challenge of direct employment, although Volterra does not consider it to be overestimated in this case.

“The inclusion of social welfare costs – such as noise, air quality and surface access costs – present a more balanced view of the social welfare impacts, albeit some of the costs appear slightly too high.

“This peer review has shown, however, that the simplistic estimate of outbound tourism losses likely does not truly reflect the net impact.”

Volterra Partners is a consultancy which looks into the economics of transport and property developments.

Its website states it has the worked on reports into Crossrail 2 and three HS2 stations, while boasting clients such as Transport for London.