Trump's tariffs could have big implications for Labour's welfare policy

What support will the British Armed Forces need to give Ukraine if a peace deal is agreed?

And also, how many MPs are likely to rebel on the Government’s landmark welfare reforms?

The chatter in the bars of Westminster is that there are normally loyal MPs who are considering voting against the cuts to the benefit bill.

“There are MPs thinking of rebelling who I never thought would,” one Starmerite backbencher tells me, concerned.

More worryingly for the Prime Minister is how the confluence of Trump’s tariffs and welfare cuts could destabilise his premiership.

So far, the President has shown little indication he’s interested in reducing the levies, which are 10 per cent on most imports from the UK and 25 per centre on steel, aluminium and cars.

It appears that the tariffs are more a deep-rooted belief rather than the negotiating tactic that many first assumed.

And this could have a huge impact on Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves’ economic plans going forward.

In the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment of the spring statement, if the tariffs remain in place they would wipe out all of the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, which is essentially the surplus of the government’s spending.

This is because it would reduce growth and therefore reduce the tax intake for the Exchequer.

So if that happens, what would Ms Reeves have to do?

Well she wouldn’t be able to increase income tax, VAT or employer’s national insurance, as that would break a manifesto commitment.

She wouldn’t be able to borrow to fund day-to-day spending as that would break her fiscal rules.

The Chancellor would either have to increase more taxes on business - like we saw at the Budget - or inflict more spending cuts on unprotected departments.

Both of these things would increase the “bind” that Labour have got themselves in, according to More in Common’s UK Director Luke Tryl.

He tells me: “If you ask people what they expect from Labour, they expect them to be about working people and to protect the vulnerable.

“They’re not really passing on either test at the moment.

“If you look at our polling, since the spring statement people are more likely to say that they don’t think that Labour are trying to protect the vulnerable, or a big chunk think they are deliberately targeting the vulnerable.

“That’s not really a place where you’d expect a Labour government to be.”

At the launch last week of the back to work trailblazer scheme in South Yorkshire, I asked Minister for Employment Alison McGovern about the prospect of more welfare cuts.

Like any good politician, she slightly dodged the question, saying: “We have got a plan to change the way we move people into work, so we can make sure, not just families do better, but the public finances are put on a sustainable footing.”

Sir Keir will certainly hope that an economic deal with Trump can get signed sooner rather than later.