US Presidential election 2024: Why the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is too close to call

Some Presidential campaigns have been courtly, bland and forgettable. Who today, for example, remembers the contest between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis in 1988? Others have been closely fought but turned on a moment of drama. In 1960, the calm youthful appearance of John F Kennedy during a TV debate watched by 70 million Americans provided a stark contrast with the haggard, defensive posture of his opponent, Richard Nixon. As the great journalist Theodore H White recalled, when the TV debates began, Nixon was regarded as the probable winner of the election and Kennedy as fighting an uphill battle. When they were over, the positions of the two candidates were reversed.

No single event has tipped the balance in 2024. The campaign has been bitter, divisive and troubling. Many US citizens worry if the rifts can ever be healed.

American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what could follow, including the potential for political violence, attempts to overturn the election results and its broader implications for democracy, according to a poll.

The findings of the survey, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, highlight persistent concerns about the fragility of the democracy, nearly four years after former president Mr Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results inspired a mob of his supporters to storm the US Capitol in a violent attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power.

About four in 10 registered voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election.

A similar share is worried about legal efforts to do so. And about one in three voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to stop the results from being finalised.

The campaign has also raised questions about how well the US protects its leaders. The assassination attempt against Mr Trump at a Pennsylvania rally in July was “preventable and should not have happened”, according to a bipartisan investigation into the shooting and the “stunning security failures” surrounding the event.

The report from a House task force provides more evidence of the law enforcement failings that preceded the July 13 shooting at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Mr Trump was struck in the ear by gunfire.

One rallygoer was killed in the shooting and two others were wounded. Politicians have repeatedly questioned why the Secret Service, an agency tasked with protecting the country’s top leaders, did not do a better job communicating with local authorities during the campaign rally. Lawmakers say they plan to issue a final report, including recommendations to avoid future assassination attempts against political candidates, by mid-December. The task force has also begun investigating the second assassination attempt on Mr Trump in September where a man with a rifle camped outside one of his golf courses in southern Florida.

The campaign has not been characterised by uplifting rhetoric. In the closing stages, Mr Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York where several speakers made racist and crude remarks. Vice President Ms Harris said Mr Trump’s rally helped prove her point about the stakes of the election.

Ms Harris said the event “really highlighted the point that I’ve been making throughout this campaign,” which is that Mr Trump is “fixated on his grievances, on himself, and on dividing our country, and it is not in any way something that will strengthen the American family, the American worker”.

Mr Trump has also described the vice president as a “stupid person” and “lazy as hell”.

With conflicts raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, the new President will face the in-tray from hell. Global markets are also feeling nervous.

“Green energy and technology are the key industries to watch if Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election, while defence contractors, oil and gas producers and cryptocurrencies will be front of stage if Donald Trump is victorious,” says Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“Unlike the UK general election where Labour had such a wide lead in the polls from the start and which made it easy to spot the sectors that could thrive or dive under its leadership, the US election is impossible to call at this stage. That situation, combined with a lack of detailed policy information in many areas, makes this a guessing game for markets and that’s a dangerous situation to be in.

“Kamala Harris is a self-proclaimed ‘capitalist’ who wants to drive the US economy, supporting US manufacturing and emerging technologies with tax breaks and incentives. That’s good on paper, but a plan to push up corporation tax from 21% to 28% doesn’t put her off to a good start with the business world.

“However, Wall Street may prefer her approach to Donald Trump given the former president’s widely unpredictable nature.”

The new occupant of the White House will need to focus much of their energies on healing a divided nation.

To quote Theodore White: “What separates the major from the minor Presidents is not stupidity, blunder or crisis; it is something else.

“It is a President’s ability, unaided to see beyond the instruments and beyond his scouts; it is his ability to perceive and seize initiative.

“It is these qualities, the expression of his initiative, that cause a President to be remembered or forgotten.”

According to White, the exercise of the President’s power must be framed by reason.

He added: “A hush, an entirely personal hush, surrounds this kind of power, and the hush is deepest in the Oval Office of the West Wing of the White House, where the President, however many his advisers, must sit alone.”

Greg Wright is the deputy business editor of The Yorkshire Post