We asked AI to predict the outcome of the Ashes, and this is what it said…
FIRST, the good news.
Joe, you did it. You finally scored a hundred in Australia. Not just one, but two, with centuries in the second Test in Brisbane and the final Test in Sydney.
The bad news is that Australia won the series 3-2 to retain the Ashes.
Steve Smith hit back with two hundreds of his own, finishing leading run-scorer with 581 at an average of 64.56 - just above Root’s 529 at 58.78.
Mitchell Starc – the former Yorkshire pace bowler – was leading wicket-taker with 28 at 24.21, edging out Jofra Archer (25 at 26.44) and Mark Wood (23 at 27.83), who perhaps improbably managed to stay injury-free.
Pat Cummins returned from a back injury to play in the last four Tests (16 wickets at 31.25), but Josh Hazlewood (hamstring) did not feature at all.
In a low-scoring series, reflecting modifications to the Kookaburra ball and more bowler-friendly conditions of late Down Under, the only other centurion was Yorkshire’s Harry Brook, who hit 146 in the fourth Test in Melbourne and finished third-highest run-scorer behind Smith and Root.
No other player, in fact, averaged over 35 as the bowlers held sway,
Oh aye, and how do you know all this, I hear you cry? Old Mother Shipton tell you, did she, on a visit to her cave?
No. It was something even more reliable than Knaresborough’s finest – AI (aka Artificial Intelligence).
For this, to be fair, was no back-of-a-fag-packet, random simulation.
On the contrary, our software looked at everything, drawing on advanced cricket modelling, player form, tactical scenarios, venue-specific conditions, weather predictions, historical data, you name it, in an effort to provide realism and analytical rigour.
Every ball of every Test was simulated using player-specific probabilities for runs, wickets and extras, adjusted for bowler-batsmen match-ups, pitch conditions, match situation, and so on, leaving nothing to chance and utilising complex multinomial regression models (ooh er, missus).
In other words, it left no stone unturned.
The first Test, in particular, was an absolute humdinger.
It’s a brave AI programme that has the self-confidence – nay, the bare-faced audacity – to predict a one-run win for either side, but that is what it did for the match that starts in Perth on Friday, coming down in Australia’s favour.
It happened – or it happens – like this … Smith scores 155 as Australia make 361, then Root strikes 92 (aargh – don’t worry, we now know that he gets there in the end) as England reply with 314.
Cameron Green top-scores with 53 in Australia’s second innings 228 before England – target 276 – are bowled out for 274 after 68 from Root and 51 from Ollie Pope, Wood the last wicket when he edges behind to give Starc a five-fer.
After only the third instance of a one-run win in Test history, following West Indies’ victory over Australia at Adelaide in 1993, and New Zealand’s triumph against England at Wellington two years ago, our simulated crowd flocked to the Gabba for the second Test in Brisbane, where there were record takings, by all accounts, at the imaginary refreshment kiosks.
This saw a comfortable win for England by eight wickets, founded on Root’s first innings 140 and a collectively impressive performance by England’s bowlers, spearheaded by Archer and Wood.
At his imaginary post-match press conference, Cummins, the Australia captain, offered no excuses.
“As Sir Geoffrey might have said, we were ruddy roobish,” he observed. “Why, there’s more brains in a pork pie than in some of our batters.”
With matters locked at 1-1, and a classic series in the making, Australia retook the lead at Adelaide with a four-wicket win.
A half-century from Green led Australia to a target of 227, the all-rounder observing later that “throughout the tense run-chase, I was always adding two wickets to the total as Sir Geoffrey would have done, just to remind myself how quickly things can change.”
On to Melbourne for the Boxing Day Test, where Brook’s first innings 146 inspired a 95-run triumph to level the series at 2-2. After both sides scored 400-plus in their first innings, England prevailed by 95 runs after Australia were left to score 276.
And so to Sydney for the final Test. Smith reasserted Australia’s authority with a magnificent 195, answered by 137 from Root as the hosts took a first innings lead of 105. Needing to score 356 to regain the urn, England were dismissed for 281.
Afterwards, Cummins and Stokes took the unusual steps of cautioning against paying any attention whatsoever to pre-series predictions using AI.
“They reckon it’s the future, but I say it’s ‘has-been’ technology,” scoffed Stokes on his way to the golf course.