Predictions computer forecasts how League Two promotion battle will unfold for Bradford City, Northampton Town, Carlisle United, Stockport County and Mansfield Town
Using their ratings for each team, experts at FiveThirtyEight simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.
And their latest analysis following the midweek programme sees them predict a fifth-placed finish for City, who are tipped to narrowly miss out on goal difference to Northampton in an intense fight for third place which also includes Carlisle United, Stockport County and Mansfield Town.
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Hide AdThe Bantams are on their best run of form since mid-autumn and have won four of their past five matches ahead of the weekend home game with Colchester United.
After a key derby win at Doncaster Rovers last weekend, Mark Hughes side backed up with an impressive 2-0 away-day success at Gillingham to make them back into the top six.
City, in fifth spot with a game in hand on third-placed Carlisle - who have a four-point advantage as it stands and head to West Yorkshire later this month - are given a 50 per cent chance of play-off participation and 38 per cent chance of promotion.
Consistently inconsistent Rovers' hopes of an outside push for the play-offs are now all but over after their reverse to Bradford.
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Hide AdDoncaster, who sit in mid-table, visit Stockport on Saturday. They are given just a seven per cent chance of making the end-of-season lottery.
Better news at the bottom sees the tipsters predict that Simon Weaver's Harrogate Town will stave off relegation.
Harrogate, who welcome Gillingham in a key survival fixture on Saturday, have won just once in their past 12 matches since Boxing Day and are anxiously looking over their shoulders.
They are predicted to end the season in their current position of 21th, with an 11 per cent chance of relegation.
Predicted table
Team name | Predicted points |
Leyton Orient | 90 |
Stevenage | 82 |
Northampton | 77 |
Carlisle | 77 |
Bradford City | 77 |
Stockport | 75 |
Mansfield | 74 |
Salford | 73 |
Swindon | 69 |
Sutton | 69 |
Tranmere | 65 |
Doncaster Rovers | 64 |
Walsall | 64 |
Barrow | 64 |
Wimbledon | 60 |
Grimsby | 58 |
Newport | 56 |
Crewe | 52 |
Colchester | 50 |
Gillingham | 49 |
Harrogate Town | 46 |
Crawley | 43 |
Hartlepool | 39 |
Rochdale | 34 |
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