Predictions computer forecasts how League Two promotion race will unfold for Bradford City, Carlisle United, Stockport County & Northampton Town & will Harrogate Town stay up?

BRADFORD CITY are being tipped to hold their ground in a tight looking League Two play-off battle, but the data boffins are predicting that they will just fall short in the automatic promotion stakes after crunching the latest set of numbers before the midweek programme.

Using their ratings for each team, experts at FiveThirtyEight simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.

Come season’s end, they predict that City will end up in fifth spot in the table - they are currently sixth - and finish three points below the side who they are tipping to take the third and final automatic promotion slot in Carlisle United, who incidentally visit Bradford next week.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Mark Hughes's side extended their unbeaten sequence to five matches in Saturday's 1-1 draw at Newport, but saw two precious points slip away after another draw in their previous game at Walsall.

EFL match-ball. Picture: Getty Images.EFL match-ball. Picture: Getty Images.
EFL match-ball. Picture: Getty Images.

The better news is that the Bantams have lost just once in their past 11 matches and now face successive home matches, against Hartlepool and Carlisle.

City are given a 58 per cent chance of finishing in the end-of-season lottery and 38 per cent chance of promotion.

Doncaster Rovers, marooned in mid-table, claimed a 2-1 win over AFC Wimbledon, while Harrogate Town - after a key midweek success at Rovers - suffered a poor 3-1 reverse at relegation rivals Crawley, a wretched display which saw manager Simon Weaver apologise to the club's supporters afterwards.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Crawley, occupying the second relegation position, are six points behind Town, but have two matches in hand.

Rochdale are propping up the table and Hartlepool are also in deep trouble, but there remains work to do for Harrogate to avoid a very nervy season's finale.

That said, the experts believe the Sulphurites are safe enough and believe that they have just a seven per cent chance of relegation - and are predicting them to finish in their current position of 21st.

Harrogate host Barrow on Saturday. Rovers head to Salford.

Predicted table

Team name Predicted points
Leyton Orient 89
Stevenage 81
Carlisle 80
Mansfield 78
Bradford City 77
Northampton 77
Stockport 74
Salford 72
Sutton 69
Swindon 68
Barrow 66
Doncaster Rovers 64
Tranmere 62
Walsall 60
Grimsby 58
Wimbledon 57
Crewe 55
Newport 54
Gillingham 51
Colchester 47
Harrogate Town 46
Crawley 43
Hartlepool 39
Rochdale 35