Supercomputer predicts new outcome in Premier League title race between Arsenal and Man City as fate predicted for Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs plus where Leeds United will finish

Mikel Arteta believes his Arsenal team have regained confidence and belief in their Premier League title bid following a dramatic win over Aston Villa last weekend.

The Gunners twice came from from behind at Villa Park before a dramatic own goal in stoppage time from former Arsenal goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez helped them claim a 4-2 win.

The ball struck the back of the Argentine’s head after Jorginho’s strike from the edge of the area came back off the crossbar. Gabriel Martinelli sealed the win as he tapped into an empty net after Martinez had gone up for a corner.

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Ollie Watkins and Philippe Coutinho twice put the home side ahead but a stunning Bukayo Saka volley and a precise Oleksandr Zinchenko finish put Arsenal on level terms.

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 18: Jorginho of Arsenal celebrates after scoring the team's third goal during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Arsenal FC at Villa Park on February 18, 2023 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 18: Jorginho of Arsenal celebrates after scoring the team's third goal during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Arsenal FC at Villa Park on February 18, 2023 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 18: Jorginho of Arsenal celebrates after scoring the team's third goal during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Arsenal FC at Villa Park on February 18, 2023 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

“I feel it’s right back,” Arteta replied when asked about the confidence of his squad. “Back with more belief than before because you have to turn performances into results.

“Against Brentford we did that but we couldn’t win it because of a decision – fine. Against Manchester City we deserved more with the performance, but the reality is that in football the games are decided in the boxes.

“Today, we have to put something else and there’s still a lot of things to improve, we have to be humble enough to see those things, recognise those things, work on them.

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“You don’t have to produce as much as we do every single game to win games. Smaller margins should be enough to win games in this league consecutively and we have to improve that.”

NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 18: Pep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City, looks on during the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City at City Ground on February 18, 2023 in Nottingham, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 18: Pep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City, looks on during the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City at City Ground on February 18, 2023 in Nottingham, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 18: Pep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City, looks on during the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City at City Ground on February 18, 2023 in Nottingham, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Man City had gone top of the league three days earlier having won 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium but Pep Guardiola’s men were held to a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest to fall two points behind Arsenal, who have a game in hand.

Data experts at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to predict who will come out on top in the title race and where every side will finish after 38 games.

FiveThirtyEight’s predicted Premier League table

Team Predicted points
Arsenal 83
Man City 82
Man United 74
Tottenham Hotspur 65
Newcastle 64
Liverpool 64
Brighton 62
Fulham 56
Brentford 55
Chelsea 52
Aston Villa 47
Leicester City 43
Crystal Palace 43
West Ham 40
Wolves 39
Nottingham Forest 38
Leeds United 37
Everton 36
Bournemouth 33
Southampton 33
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