Supercomputer on where Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley, Ipswich Town, Plymouth Argyle, Derby County & Portsmouth will finish in League One
Using their ratings for each team, data boffins at fivethirtyeight.com simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.
Wednesday recorded their third win on the spin - and fifth in an unbeaten seven-match league sequence - against Shrewsbury on Saturday, to reach 40 points for the season and move within a point of second-placed Ipswich Town and three of leaders Plymouth.
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Hide AdArgyle dropped two valuable points in a late 2-2 draw at Burton, their second successive draw. After two consecutive draws, Ipswich got back on track with a 2-0 success at Exeter.
It promises to be a fascinating three-way battle for automatic promotion to the death and the experts now believe the Owls will be the ones smiling at the end of the season - and are backing them to pip Ipswich and Plymouth to the title, but only just.
Wednesday, backed to win silverware on goal difference on 91 points, are given a healthy 65 per cent chance of promotion and 30 per chance of winning the league.
Ipswich's promotion prospects are rated at 62 per cent, as it stands, while Plymouth’s overall prospects of going up are rated at 58 per cent.
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Hide AdIn the play-off race, Barnsley have hit a nice run of form with their 3-1 weekend win over MK Dons at being their third successive win.
They currently occupy the final top-six place and are a point ahead of Portsmouth, who have a game in hand.
The Reds are being tipped to end the season in fifth place with 77 points. They are given a 48 per cent chance of promotion via the play-offs and a 23 per cent chance of promotion.
Here is an explanation as to how the model works https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/
Predicted table
Team | Predicted points |
Sheffield Wednesday | 91 |
Ipswich | 90 |
Plymouth | 90 |
Derby | 80 |
Barnsley | 77 |
Portsmouth | 74 |
Bolton | 74 |
Peterborough | 72 |
Lincoln | 65 |
Wycombe | 64 |
Charlton | 64 |
Oxford | 64 |
Shrewsbury | 58 |
Exeter | 58 |
Port Vale | 57 |
Bristol Rovers | 57 |
Fleetwood | 55 |
Cheltenham | 53 |
MK Dons | 52 |
Accrington | 47 |
Cambridge | 47 |
Burton | 42 |
Morecambe | 40 |
Forest Green | 38 |