Super-computer on where Bradford City, Doncaster Rovers, Swindon Town, Carlisle United and Harrogate Town will finish in League Two

DATA experts at FiveThirtyEight are tipping that Bradford City will finish in the League Two play-offs in May - but will fall shy of automatic promotion at the end of 2022-23.

Using their ratings for each team, they simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.

Meanwhile, inconsistent Doncaster Rovers are being tipped to mix out on the play-offs, but there is succour for Harrogate Town, who are being predicted to still be an EFL club and avoid relegation come late spring.

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City, who could have moved into the automatic promotion slots if they had beaten Northampton on Saturday, are tipped to where they are currently in the table - fifth.

The official Puma Sky Bet EFL match ball. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)The official Puma Sky Bet EFL match ball. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
The official Puma Sky Bet EFL match ball. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

They are given a 37 per cent chance of promotion through the play-offs and 28 per cent chance of promotion.

Currently in tenth, Rovers - who produced a wretched weekend performance at lowly Colchester - are backed to finish in their present-day placing and finish adrift of the play-off spots.

Danny Schofield's side are given a 23 per cent chance of promotion via the play-offs and 13 per cent chance of promotion.

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Richie Wellens's Leyton Orient are tipped to finish as champions, according to the latest data, with Northampton – who were outstanding in their weekend win at Bradford - and Steve Evans' Stevenage filling the other top automatic promotion positions.

Meanwhile, the boffins believe that Harrogate Town will escape relegation to the Conference by the skin of their teeth.

They are predicted to finish in 22nd place, two below their current placing with 45 points, ahead of second-from-bottom Gillingham on goal difference. They are given a 30 per cent chance of relegation.

Here is an explanation as to how the model works

The predicted League Two table

Team Predicted points
Leyton Orient 91
Northampton 84
Stevenage 79
Swindon 74
Bradford City 73
Carlisle 71
Barrow 71
Salford 69
Mansfield 68
Doncaster 67
Tranmere 64
Wimbledon 64
Stockport 64
Walsall 62
Crewe 60
Grimsby 60
Newport 55
Sutton 54
Crawley 51
Colchester 50
Rochdale 47
Harrogate 45
Gillingham 43
Hartlepool 38