World Cup tie-breakers: Trust me, penalty shoot-outs without tension do not work - Stuart Rayner

HOW do you solve a problem like Poland and Mexico?

If you thought deciding who wins, say, a European Championship on the basis of penalties was harsh (honestly, I am over it now), Mexico going out of the World Cup because of two extra yellow cards would have been harsher still.

A late Salem Al Dawsari goal spared us that on Wednesday but we were a couple of bad Polish tackles from deciding France's last-16 opponents by drawing lots. That was how the Republic of Ireland drew Romania rather than West Germany in 1990, although at least the Netherlands went through as one of the best third-place teams.

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It looks likely to rear its ugly head again, if not this week then in four years' time. If it is in North America, it will be of FIFA's own making.

Mexico's midfielder #08 Carlos Rodriguez (L) and Mexico's midfielder #04 Edson Alvarez (R) react after the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match between Saudi Arabia and Mexico (Picture: ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP via Getty Images)Mexico's midfielder #08 Carlos Rodriguez (L) and Mexico's midfielder #04 Edson Alvarez (R) react after the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match between Saudi Arabia and Mexico (Picture: ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP via Getty Images)
Mexico's midfielder #08 Carlos Rodriguez (L) and Mexico's midfielder #04 Edson Alvarez (R) react after the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match between Saudi Arabia and Mexico (Picture: ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP via Getty Images)

A 32-team tournament works. FIFA's attitude so often seems to be that if it ain't broke, fix it anyway.

To spread the planet's most popular sport and not at all to garner presidential elections votes, the governing body decided we need 48 teams in 2026. Thinning that to the right number for a knockout is uncomfortable. Two qualifying from six groups of eight would mean a lot of dead matches and a lot of games full-stop when players look knackered as it is.

FIFA’s council unanimously voted for 16 groups of three, two going through to an extra knockout round. But with the thought of the group of death becoming the group of mild trepidation, they seem to be wavering. Twelve groups of four is back on the table.

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Some teams finishing third and going through as others go out would be unsatisfactory but groups of three would mean more teams finishing with identical records.

FACE-SAVER: Salem Al-Dawsari's goal for Saudi Arabia avoiding France's World Cup last-16 opponents being decided by yellow cardsFACE-SAVER: Salem Al-Dawsari's goal for Saudi Arabia avoiding France's World Cup last-16 opponents being decided by yellow cards
FACE-SAVER: Salem Al-Dawsari's goal for Saudi Arabia avoiding France's World Cup last-16 opponents being decided by yellow cards

So one idea floated this week, no doubt to gauge the mood, has been penalty shoot-outs for group games – maybe after them, maybe before. On top of another reason to hand out points, it feeds into the patronising view that American football fans – because the USA will host games with Mexico and Canada – are too thick to understand draws.

Having reported on a Football League Trophy group stage shoot-out between a team guaranteed to finish third and an under-21 side certain to be bottom, I can confirm they do not really work without tension.

I probably should have counted how many of the 248 fans stayed in Blundell Park that cold Tuesday night to watch Sunderland’s youngsters (and Jack Rodwell) gloriously triumph 7-6 in an ABBA-format shoot-out but clinging onto the will to live became a higher priority.

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It has become accepted practice for the final round of league matches – be they tournament groups or domestic leagues – to kick-off simultaneously to avoid the kind of jiggery-pokery associated with Gijon 1982 or Jimmy Hill in 1977.

NON-EVENT: Grimsby Town and Sunderland played out an utterly pointless penalty shoot-out in 2017NON-EVENT: Grimsby Town and Sunderland played out an utterly pointless penalty shoot-out in 2017
NON-EVENT: Grimsby Town and Sunderland played out an utterly pointless penalty shoot-out in 2017

So the thought of group-deciding shoot-outs only one side might have a stake in does not fill me with excitement. An already-qualified team who could quite like losing theirs so a dangerous rival gets knocked out is downright distasteful.

Hence the suggestion to have them before kick-off but how weird would that be? A shoot-out with a good chance of utter irrelevance.

The hipsters suggested xG (expected goals) as a tie-breaker this week but the thought of games being decided by an analyst's view of what is a good chance of scoring is ridiculous. Shots on target is another well-intentioned bad idea.

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We might be best off with the current system – points, then goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head, then disciplinary records. What we need is a group system which keeps these dilemmas to a minimum.

Like the one we have.