Wakefield Trinity hurtling towards Championship but what is true cost of relegation? - James O'Brien comment

It is not so much the defeats but the manner of them, with Trinity failing to lay a glove on their rivals since scoring 24 points against Catalans Dragons in round one.

Rookie head coach Mark Applegarth quickly found himself without full-back Max Jowitt, star winger Lewis Murphy and half-back Lee Gaskell – as well as Corey Hall through choice – and the points have completely dried up.

Wakefield have scored just four tries in their last eight games, a wretched record that has featured a staggering five nillings.

When one try is often enough for the opposition, there is little in the way of hope for the long-suffering Trinity fans.

There have been highs during the club's 24-year stay in Super League – most recently when they achieved back-to-back fifth-place finishes under Chris Chester – but too often Wakefield find themselves treading water at the bottom.

Trinity have avoided the drop on the final day five times and demonstrated their famed fighting spirit to escape relegation again last season from a seemingly hopeless situation.

But one look at the 2022 squad alongside the current crop highlights the size of the task facing Applegarth.

The former academy boss lost the likes of Jacob Miller, James Batchelor, Tom Johnstone, David Fifita and Tinirau Arona in the off-season and was never likely to replace that quality and influence on a modest budget.

Kevin Proctor and Renouf Atoni have struggled since making the switch from the NRL – as many overseas forwards do in their first season – while Morgan Smith was a Championship half-back this time last year and Samisoni Langi is still trying to win fans over after originally reneging on a move to Belle Vue at the end of 2021.

Throw in the loss of Murphy to a season-ending knee injury and it adds up to an ill-equipped squad for a relegation battle.

Barring a minor miracle or an unexpected cash injection to bring in much-needed quality, Wakefield will be playing in the Championship next season.

Twenty-five years on from their last experience of the second tier, it will be a step into the unknown for Trinity.

As if there isn't enough uncertainty at a time when chief executive Michael Carter is preparing to move on, big change is coming in the form of IMG's proposal to scrap automatic promotion and relegation from the start of next season.

Until Wakefield discover their illustrative grade for the new system later this year, they will not know the true cost of relegation.

Essentially, their future prospects are in the hands of IMG's head-spinning 20-point plan that will score clubs across five areas: fandom (25 per cent), performance (25 per cent), finance (22.5 per cent), stadium (15 per cent) and community (12.5 per cent).

While it is guesswork until the weightings are used in a practical sense, relegation is unlikely to alter Trinity’s score too drastically.

If they do go down and enjoy a strong season in 2024, they are likely to compare favourably with current Championship clubs.

The redevelopment of their Belle Vue home leaves Wakefield on course for a solid stadium score and Trinity will be no worse off than two of their closest rivals Castleford Tigers and Featherstone Rovers under catchment, which accounts for 1.5 points of the community pillar.

Fandom may be an issue for Wakefield and clubs of a similar standing, while finance is something of an unknown, particularly for Trinity as they prepare for life without Carter.

Performance is where Wakefield could have an edge over potential rivals for remaining Super League places, should the worst happen.

Teams are ranked from one to 36 based on where they finish in the leagues and play-offs over the previous three seasons.

Even accounting for a 12th-place finish this year, Trinity have some credit in the bank after coming 10th in 2022, and they could further boost their score by winning the 1895 Cup.

Of course, an immediate return to Super League is subject to Wakefield bouncing back quickly on the field.

The ongoing confusion over gradings may have contributed to the club changing their stance ahead of Wednesday's key vote.

After previously stating the game had "no other option" than to back IMG's plans, Carter said in his weekend programme notes: "Until key issues are resolved, we will not be voting in favour."

Carter's comments only add to the sense of insecurity that has enveloped Wakefield.

Trinity will need to accept the outcome of the vote and plot a way out of the situation they find themselves in.

First things first, they need to figure out how to score points and win games again.