Death of the leader of the Wagner group shows Putin is walking a tightrope - Patrick Mercer

Indeed, one of my contacts dismissed the whole catalogue of Prigozin’s escapades rather succinctly: “Prigo lost my admiration when he killed his brothers in his mad march on Moscow. Nobody thought Putin would let him survive for long and that’s exactly what’s happened - I’d have done the same,” adding that it’s only, really, the West who are interested because of Prigozin’s ability to grab the headlines.

The thing I find rather chilling, though, is the lack of emotion amongst the Russians to whom I talk - first about Wagner’s June mutiny and then about its boss’s fiery demise. It’s almost as if such things are everyday events in their country: the fact is, they are.

Remember, since the fall of the Soviet Union there have been two attempted coups in Russia with one even involving armoured vehicles firing on the seat of government. In parallel, Moscow’s armed forces have been constantly engaged in a string of violent campaigns with all the brutalising of society that that involves. Meanwhile, there is, and always has been, a culture of politically motivated murders with a catalogue of individuals who have fallen from windows, been poisoned or simply died of mysterious illnesses.

But, before we condemn Russia as barbaric, let’s just remember some of the things that go on in our own ‘civilised’ democracies. We’ve just passed the anniversary of the assassination of a leading member of our Royal Family: Mountbatten was blown to bits by terrorists who are still very active in the UK today. Insurgents stormed the US Capitol a couple of years ago; we’ve just sent a young woman to prison for murdering helpless, newborn babies and, ask yourself, how many children have been shot dead in US schools in the last month?

That’s not to excuse Mr Prigozhin’s aircraft with several members of his senior staff being smashed from the sky as it travelled between St Petersburg and Moscow, but after Wagner had been responsible for the death of at least 13 aircrew during the June mutiny, revenge was inevitable.

The timing was interesting too. The murders stole the headlines from Kiev’s daring raids on Crimea to mark Ukrainian Independence Day and I’m sure it left a deep impression on the world leaders attending the BRICS conference in Johannesburg.

Then listen to CIA Director William Burns who noted that “Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback.” That convinced me that President Putin was simply waiting for the right time and place to move against Prigozhin without appearing impulsive or overreacting. Mr Putin had to exact ostentatious revenge not only to scupper any accusations of weakness, but also to underline his support for his armed forces who had been thrown into internecine conflict with Prigozhin and Wagner.

Palatable or not, that’s the Russian way and it signals a huge instability in their society, the most recent demonstration of which was the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 provoked, very largely, by their disastrously costly campaign in Afghanistan. That’s why, with roiling rivalry and discontent as his constant companions, President Putin has had to tread such a tricky path in Ukraine.

Unable formally to declare war, unable to introduce the level of conscription he needs to produce forces that could swamp his enemies in traditional, Russian style, President Putin has had to rely on a ragbag of gendarmes, militia and mercenaries to conduct his ‘Special Military Operation’.

Designed by the Kremlin for a rapid victory against a shaky foe, the fighting has dragged into 18 months as Ukraine confounded their enemy’s hopes.

And these circumstances allow the warlords like Prigozhin terrific leverage. Wagner was the biggest organisation in an increasingly crowded field of private military companies who are offering their services. The advantage they give the Kremlin is that they are all well paid volunteers, some of whom have been recruited from prisons and whose deaths will not cause outrage in the same way that a young conscript’s would. But this is further complicated by the involvement of senior officers in these commercial concerns.

So, expect more of these Machiavellian twists and turns as the pressure grows on President Putin to achieve a creditable result from this campaign.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.