How Russia is looking increasingly confident politically as Putin strengthens his grip in war with Ukraine - Patrick Mercer

That’s been followed by a series of other revolts (think Yeltsin ordering the army to open fire on the Russian Parliament in 1993), not least of which was the Wagner Group mutiny last June which, we know, deeply unsettled the Kremlin.

Well, no matter whether the election was sham or not, Mr Putin must now feel that he has a solid mandate not just to finish the fighting in Ukraine, but also to stand up to the Western powers who have made no secret of their wish to humble him.

It’s still possible to see a way through this for Ukraine, though. Were unlimited money and weapons to be poured into her armouries, fresh manpower conscripted and trained by NATO and a new strategy developed - then Kiev might prevail, but it utterly depends on Western succour in an election year, a year when risk aversion is going to be every candidate’s watchword. Undoubtedly, the next few months will be critical for Kiev.

Meanwhile, America’s convolutions are fascinating. With shocking jingoism a small number of neocons thrust Mr Biden into a war that was always going to be hard to prosecute unless NATO’s European countries stood firmly with him. That worked for 18 months or so until Republicans stamped on the money hose. This left Ukraine without the support that was keeping her in the game whilst everyone else bickered about the way ahead.

Mr Scholz of Germany was predictably unreliable, a litany of British premiers talked a good war with neither the means nor the guts to back up their words, whilst Mr Macron of France turned himself inside out to keep Marine Le Pen - his right wing opponent - at bay. First he tried to appease Moscow, but now, with Le Pen making no secret of her admiration for Mr Putin, he’s become the cheerleader of direct intervention.

Mr Macron’s stance is hard to pin down, but he seems to be saying that France might lead a coalition of other countries into Ukraine to hold certain strategic points against a Russian army romping through a collapsed Ukraine.

It looks as though French troops would be sent towards Odessa in order to protect the great port there, but timings, formations and numbers are still pie in the sky. The point is that such an intervention - unthinkable even a few months ago - is even being discussed. Perhaps it’s just Mr Macron pipe dreaming in his last term in office…perhaps.

Equally well, remember how no fighter aircraft, no long range missiles nor heavy tanks were ever going to be sent to Kiev? Yet now all of those NATO weapons are being used directly against Russia. Might not Mr Macron be testing the water for the rest of the West? Certainly, the building of a large NATO base near the Ukrainian border in Romania suggests that Western forces are positioning themselves firmly for a quick reaction.

But, here’s the latest rumour in Washington. It’s said that Donald Trump, whose chances of becoming president once more are only increasing - is mulling the idea of teaming up with Mr Putin in an attempt to broker peace in Ukraine shortly before the US elections. The benefits for both men are obvious: Mr Putin could cast himself as a peacemaker whilst Mr Trump would pull off a strategic coup even before he’s elected, scuppering Mr Biden and confounding his critics all at once. Whether this is true or not, I’ll put money on a peace deal being achieved just before America goes to the polls in November.

Now, unless Ukraine pulls a rabbit out of a combat helmet, all Mr Putin’s got to do is restrain his generals. Kiev may be on the back foot and the chances of victory looking remote, but she’s still got about 700,000 troops under arms, all of whom could inflict heavy casualties on Russia.

Soviet tactical doctrine, though, talks about sniffing victory and then pursuing it relentlessly and that’s how Moscow’s generals have been trained. But, such ruthlessness will not just cause Russian bodies to pile up, it may stiffen NATO’s spine at the last moment, uniting the fractious friends and buying Ukraine a reprieve.

And remember Russia’s paranoia about internal dissent. Despite the shot in the arm that his election results have given him, Mr Putin is canny enough to know that the dead and injured in Afghanistan acted as a huge catalyst for the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 90s.

That’s why he’s never ordered widespread conscription: today’s Russian society will never accept the sort of sacrifices that it endured to defeat the Nazis.

So, why would Mr Putin unleash his dogs of war when US politicians of one stripe or another are likely to cause the shooting to stop in six months anyway? I’m sure this is the equation with which the Kremlin is toying at the moment; the trouble is that Mr Macron and his allies in Romania and Poland may have very different ideas.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.