No fly-zone would protect Ukraine from Russian forces, now call President Putin’s bluff as war escalates – Paul Andrews

Our leaders have refused because they are afraid this could lead to a direct military (and possibly nuclear) confrontation with Russia.

How Putin has lost the faith of Russia’s soldiers as Ukrainain war becomes the world’s worst nightmare – Colonel Bob Stewart

So are we either legally – or honour-bound – to do more than impose economic sanctions against Russia and President Vladimir Putin’s regime?

We sympathise with Ukraine in its hours of agony. Our politicians posture and make grand speeches. We impose sanctions.

But few of us had heard of Ukraine until a few weeks ago. It is not a Nato member. Its people speak a language very similar to Russian and historically Ukraine was part of the old Soviet Union. So why should we care? Aren’t sanctions enough?

Unfortunately, we can’t get out of our legal and moral obligations so easily. Both the US and the UK are bound by a treaty dated December 5, 1994. This legally does require both the US and the UK to guarantee the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Before this treaty, Ukraine had a nuclear arsenal of 1,900 nuclear warheads, each with explosive yields of between 400-550 kilotons and each up to 37 times the size of the atomic bomb which devastated Hiroshima in Second World War.

The 1994 treaty was signed by Russia, the US and the UK. By this treaty, Ukraine gave up her nuclear arsenal in return for assurances by all three signatories to guarantee her right to exist as a sovereign, independent state.

On the basis of this agreement, Ukraine gave up all her nuclear weapons. It is doubtful if President Putin would have dared attack Ukraine if Ukraine had kept its nuclear arsenal.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in clear breach of this treaty. Ukraine is calling on Nato to enforce a no-fly zone over the whole of Ukraine. In strictly legal terms, the treaty does not require any of the parties to it to do anything to remedy any breach of the agreement other than seek the assistance of the UN.

This has been done and Russia has used its veto in the Security Council. Clearly the exercise of the veto is also contrary to the express terms of the treaty.

It is clear the USA and UK are expected to guarantee the integrity and independence of Ukraine. The question is whether or not economic sanctions go far enough. If Ukraine falls, the answer will be ‘No’.

The question will then be asked: Can the West be relied upon to honour our international commitments? Will the rest of the world trust any liberal democratic country any more? And what damage will that do to the international world order?

We have seen how Russian air power has crushed opposition to Syria’s brutal dictatorship, using barrel bombs, cluster bombs and missiles against civilian targets.

President Putin is using the same tactics to grind down the brave Ukrainian resistance. Judging from the example of Syria, he will almost certainly succeed in the end, if he keeps at it long enough. This is the reality which we all need to face. The best way to stop him would be to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

President Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert. The question is: would he use them? He would be mad to do so. The question is: is he that mad?

Well, whether we like him or not, one thing stands out and this is that he is a man who uses threats and takes calculated risks. His bluff should be called.

We should consider the consequences of not stopping Putin. We have seen the consequences of the other wars he’s been involved with. They usually produce floods of refugees which can have a destabilising effect on liberal democracies. Refugees are accepted in their thousands and this raises political tensions at home which are exploited by extremists, particularly the extreme right.

This suits dictators like Putin down to the ground. And as all the world is taught English, our over-crowded UK has become a popular destination for refugees.

There is clear choice: either we bring Putin’s legions to a halt immediately by imposing a no-fly zone, or else we rely on sanctions and attrition until the Russian economy collapses completely.

Or Ukraine capitulates.

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