Iran v Israel: military misstep now will have dire consequences

That just a handful of them managed to breach Israeli defences will to some be celebrated as a strategic win for Israel’s defence systems, but making a case for success of any sorts in this situation, barring preventing harm and loss of life, is difficult.

From a British perspective, that this country’s RAF Typhoons and their pilots, dispatched to assist in defending Israel, returned home having come to no harm on Saturday night is a blessing.

Yet, from the moment those jets returned safely to their Cypriot base, having shot down munitions en-route to wreak havoc, thoughts immediately turned to concerns about what happens next.

Already diplomats, politicians, military leaders and intelligence agencies will be analysing the detail, seeking to understand precisely the intent of Iranian leaders; was this attack for the cameras, grist to its propaganda mill or was it something else?

Iran is more than well aware of the air defence systems available to Israel; it is also a well-equipped military power with the capability to wage war on most. This has led experts to surmise the messaging on this occasion was the objective. A shot across the bow on the one hand, and an apparent retaliation on the other.

The key, now, is: what happens next? Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has no margin for error – a misstep now will have dire ramifications for Israel and all of its allies. Diplomacy must prevail.