Prime Minister Rishi Sunak needs to build on Northern Ireland deal success - Bill Carmichael

If Mr Sunak manages to pull this off it will be seen as a landmark achievement and a key turning point not only in his own career, but in the whole Brexit journey and the future prospects of the Conservative party.

The Windsor Framework, as it has been called, would establish green and red lanes for goods heading to Northern Ireland from Great Britain. British goods destined to stay in Northern Ireland, including sausages, seed potatoes and garden plants, would go through the green lane with minimal paperwork and minimal checks.

Only goods destined for the EU, in most cases the Irish Republic, would go through the red lane and need to be checked. So the integrity of the EU’s single market would be protected.

There are also relaxations on rules regarding medicines, parcels, VAT regulations and the movement of pets.

Crucially, the new deal removes the invidious current position whereby EU rules could be imposed on the people of Northern Ireland without their consent.

In future the Northern Ireland Assembly, with the support of the Westminster government, could apply a “Stormont Brake”, which would stop any changes to current EU laws applying in Northern Ireland.

All this is eminently sensible and it is a mystery why it has not been discussed before. Well, the mystery is over - it has been discussed before many times.

The UK negotiators have offered such a compromise on numerous occasions, but the EU has always rejected it outright saying such a deal was completely impossible.

Why the sudden change of heart now? I can't say for sure but I suspect the war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis helped concentrate minds among our European neighbours.

Perhaps they finally realised that antagonising and attempting to isolate the UK, a staunch and unwavering ally and the strongest military force in Europe, purely over hurt feelings over Brexit, wasn’t such a good idea after all, what with Vladimir Putin stamping his jackboot over Ukraine.

Whatever the reason for the more conciliatory approach from our friends in Brussels, it is to be warmly welcomed.

There is absolutely no reason why Northern Ireland’s place as an integral part of the UK, and the integrity of the EU’s single market, cannot be both achieved given a bit of compromise and good will. Let’s hope that now happens. And cooperation between the UK and our European neighbours is going to be vital given the new reality of Russia’s imperialist aggression and naked threats against its neighbours. And in domestic terms the deal, if it is implemented, can provide a springboard for the government which has appeared in the doldrums since Sunak became Prime Minister last October.

The upcoming Budget on March 15 gives Sunak and his Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, the opportunity to inject a bit of growth into a stagnant economy with personal and business tax cuts. And what is more they have a bit of money to do so, as the economy has not performed quite as badly as some, including the Bank of England, predicted.

It would still be a miracle if the Conservatives were to overturn Labour’s lead in the opinion polls, , which last time I looked was well north of 20 points.

But despite this I detect little genuine enthusiasm for the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer. His most recent speech on Labour’s ‘mission’ was so chock full of dull, impenetrable management gobbledegook that it left even his natural supporters cold.

If Sunak can nail this Northern Ireland deal, stem the number of small boats crossing the Channel, inject some growth into the economy, and sort out the public sector strikes, then maybe, just maybe, he can give Starmer and Labour a run for their money.

It all depends on whether Sunak has the courage and the ability to build on his success. We will find out in the coming months.