What is in store for the property market this Autumn and a reason to be cheerful

There is, however, an element of uncertainty affecting some parts of the property market, especially in the upper reaches, because of what may lie ahead in terms of government policy and taxation.

That will become clear when Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces the contents of the Labour Party’s Autumn Budget , which is set for 30 October 20, 2024, with anticipation as to what it may include on tax rises for individuals and businesses.

Sir Keir Starmer has warned that Labour’s Budget on October 30 will be painful and that people would have to brace themselves for short-term pain for long-term good. He added that those with the broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden.

For now, data from Nationwide shows that annual house price growth stands at 2.4 per cent, the strongest since December 2022, while mortgage approvals reached their highest level since September 2022 and residential transactions in July were five per cent above the five-year average.

Tom Bill, Head of Residential Research at Knight Frank, points out that Savvas Savouri, chief economist at QuantMetriks, disputes the theory of a deteriorating economy and says the strength of the jobs market, the banking sector and the pound is evidence that UK PLC is not on its knees.

What is evident is that more buy-to-let investors are selling up. Heather Powell, Head of Property at tax, accounting and business advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, says that the Government needs to ensure that landlords do not decide to sell up or there will be a major decrease of homes available for rent.

She adds that unincorporated landlords, who have not put their properties into a company structure for tax purposes, have faced a tsunami of legislation in the last ten years, including the proportion of their mortgage interest that can be deducted from their tax liability.

She concludes: “Private landlords are now considering their options, especially as the forecasts of future growth in the price of homes is low. Combine this forecast with the cost of remortgaging when fixed rate loans mature and the threat of a requirement to upgrade homes, many may decide to sell up, especially if the expected change in capital gains rates is imposed from April 2025.

“Many graduates and key workers rent and this could leave them without any housing options, which will not help the economy. Changes to taxes and other legislation need to be carefully considered to ensure that homes are available where they are needed.”

David Hannah, Group Chairman of Cornerstone Tax, a stamp duty advisory, adds: “It is expected that next month's Autumn Budget will confirm changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax, aka SDLT, thresholds. From March 2025, the stamp duty threshold will decrease from £250,000 to £125,000, increasing the tax on an average home from £2,768 to £5,268.

“This change will affect both general homebuyers and first-time buyers, the latter currently paying no stamp duty on properties up to £425,000. This threshold reduces to £300,000 in April 2025, meaning first-time buyers will pay £8,750 on a £425,000 property.”

Mr Hannah argues that the Chancellor should reverse the plans and urges the government to avoid a sudden tax increase on homebuyers, arguing that reducing the stamp duty burden will have long-term economic benefits such as boosting the UK's housing market by supporting first-time buyers.

Only time will tell if the government strategies work but let’s end on the high note that is Wakefield, where the housing market beats the rest of Yorkshire into a cocked hat.

The latest figures from Zoopla show that property prices in the cathedral city have risen 2.7 per cent year on year thanks in part to buyers large part to easy road and rail access to Leeds, its competitive house prices and its sense of community.

Its centre deteriorated due to shop closures but is undergoing a revival and work has just begun on the Wood Street Collection in Wakefield’s historic Civic Quarter, which will include a community of 63 homes plus public spaces.