Elections 2019 and why Theresa May’s dire situation makes Gordon Brown’s woes seem enviable – Tom Richmond
Today will be no exception with anticipated Tory defeats set to intensify pressure on Theresa May to quit after the Prime Minister’s Brexit strategy effectively collapsed.
And that was before Mrs May sacked Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson for divulging secrets from the National Security Council - evidence of how Cabinet discipline has totally broken down.
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Hide AdYet, before this, her predicament is even more perilous when set in the context of Gordon Brown’s crisis on the corresponding election day in 2009. The then PM was on the brink after the global economic meltdown – and MPs’ expenses scandal – fuelled Labour unease as the party lost 291 councillors (a setback that Mrs May would view as a triumph).
Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and Communities Secretary Hazel Blears had already announced that they were quitting in the days immediately prior to the election. Ms Smith, whose expense claims inadvertently included two pornographic films watched by her husband, suffered the indignity of being mocked in the Commons by a very virtuous Chris Grayling, her then Tory shadow. How times change...
Yet, as the polls closed at 10pm, James Purnell (now a top BBC boss) quit as Work and Pensions Secretary – the national media had been tipped off before Mr Brown – and a mass Cabinet walkout by Blairites was anticipated (a precursor to the Brexit factionalism of today).
And even though Mr Brown had, by now, lost three Cabinet colleagues in as many days, notoriety Mrs May has not achieved (yet), centrists like Leeds-born David Miliband, the then Foreign Secretary, surprisingly stayed in post. It was a decision that changed the course of political history. Accused by Brownites of undermining a government in crisis, his indecisiveness did not endear him to Blairites when it did come to the 2010 Labour leadership contest when he was narrowly defeated by his younger brother Ed, the Doncaster North MP, whose more left-wing approach and agenda paved the way for Jeremy Corbyn to take control of the party five years later.
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Hide AdThat aside, three reasons explain why Gordon Brown survived for another year. First, he kept faith with the under-rated Alistair Darling as Chancellor.
In his memoirs, Mr Darling recalls being called to the PM’s 10 Downing Street study. “There was no one elsewhere. All he said was: ‘OK, you can stay’,” he wrote. “That was it. I made no demands of him. We didn’t talk on. He was weary and so was I.” Though Mr Darling had it within his power to bring down the PM, he concluded: “To walk away would have been to absolve myself of collective responsibility...”
Compare this statesmanship with the self-indulgence of past and present Brexiteers in Mrs May’s (supposed) top team who exploit every weakness – and, separately, the fact that the PM still cannot sack serial failures like her inept Transport Secretary without rocking the proverbial boat – or ferry when it comes to the cost of Mr Grayling’s costly Brexit contracts with shipping firms.
Second, Mr Brown had previously brought Peter Mandelson, a longstanding nemesis, back into the Cabinet fold for his experience and calmness. “Although I shared some of the misgivings of Gordon’s critics, an apparently Blairite putsch was not the way to go,” he revealed in his memoir The Third Man.
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Hide AdJust think if Mrs May had persuaded William Hague, a former Foreign Secretary, to become her deputy and confidante, as I suggested some time ago – his experience and knowhow is wasted in a fortnightly national newspaper column.
Finally, the proximity of the 2010 election did help to maintain a Labour truce of sorts. Yet, if Mrs May had not called her ill-advised early election two years ago and lost her majority, Britain would be gearing up for an election in 2020 and she might – just – have been in a position to appeal to some more malleable Tory MPs for some loyalty over Brexit.
Now she finds herself such a hostage of fortune that the Government’s legislative programme is so threadbare – MPs sat for just five hours and 40 minutes on Monday – because she cannot unveil a new Queen’s Speech as it will be voted down and force the early election that the Tories want to avoid.
And here is the irony. A decade ago, Labour did not suffer a catastrophic election defeat – David Cameron, despite being in the political ascendancy, had to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Looking back, these events look positively benign compared to today’s turmoil.
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Hide AdNow survival for the Tories is Theresa May staying in post until the very end of this month when her period in office will eclipse Gordon Brown’s premiership which lasted two years and 319 days.
And while the PM and her party might regard such bragging rights as a success, it is still no way to run the country as the Gavin Williamson scandal now shows.